中国食糖消费在果葡糖浆竞争下持续增长

  • 目前我们对2019年的消费评估维持30万吨增长量。 
  • 我们认为在工业消费和民用消费领域的食糖消费量均有所增长。 
  • 然而,因为不同甜味剂之间的竞争愈发激烈,2019消费评估存在下调风险。 

甜味剂消费总量仍在增长  

  • 我们认为2019年的甜味剂消费总量仍在增长。 
  • 根据国家统计局5月数据,除了果蔬汁累计产量同比下降2%以外,其余6类含糖食品的累计产量同比增长幅度在2% 34%之间。 
  • 尽管果葡糖浆的替代仍在继续,我们认为截至5月底含糖食品产量的增长会给食糖消费带来约10万吨的增量。

  • 同时,随着中国居民人均可支配收入的持续增长,以及人口的增长,我们认为民用消费也在持续增长。 
  • 因此目前我们维持1530万吨的消费评估, 同比增长30万吨。 
  • 但是,因为终端工业用户可能选择使用更多的果葡糖浆或者其他甜味剂,存在消费评估下调的风险。 

果葡糖浆仍有价格优势  

  • 目前食糖和果葡糖浆(等糖价)的价差维持在1724元的水平。 
  • 这足以刺激工业终端用户继续加大果葡糖浆的使用量。 
  • 而我们认为果葡糖浆对食糖的进一步替代主要发生在饮料领域。 
  • 这是因为从配方而言,饮料可以使用果葡糖浆完全替代白糖。而目前中国市场饮料果葡糖浆的使用比例估计不超过50% 
  • 随着夏日饮料消费旺季的到来,预计食糖和果葡糖浆之间的竞争会更加激烈。  

健康偏好驱动下的低卡路里甜味剂/无糖趋势  

  • 同时,食糖消费还面临着消费偏好改变的压力。在健康理念驱动下,当前消费者越加偏好低糖低卡路里的饮品。 
  • 近年来众多食品饮料企业还推出了多款低糖甚至无糖的饮料新品。 
  • 而且我们发现在饮品中甚至在奶茶店里面低卡路里甜味剂,例如甜菊糖也变得常见。 
  • 目前尽管这个细分市场还相对较小,但是在持续增长中。.  

  • 大部分国内奶茶店目前都提供多个甜度选择,包括从无糖到全糖。 
  • 喜茶,作为行业龙头,更是首个引进甜菊糖以满足偏好低糖低卡路里的消费者的需求。  

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Rosa Li

Rosa graduated from Jinan University in 2012 with a bachelor’s degree in Marketing. Rosa joined Czarnikow in 2014 and has been an analyst for 7 years in our Guangzhou office managing the data capture, analysis and visualisation within the Chinese sugar markets utilising her skills in SQL, Python and VBA while also providing content for our platform Czapp. Rosa is also responsible for the localization of Czapp in China – Czapp WeChat, she also assists with the commercial marketing in China and works towards strategy with the trading team.

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