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Analyst Insights Analyst Insights 截止本月底产量可能达十年高位 – China Weekly Update, 20th November 2019

November 20, 2019

1 min read

截止本月底产量可能达十年高位 – China Weekly Update, 20th November 2019

  • 截至11月底全国食糖产量可能达十年记录高位。
  • 原因包括甜菜糖的增产，以及甘蔗糖厂的提前开榨。
  • 目前糖价与生产成本之间的价差大约500元，这刺激糖厂提前开榨销售。

市场热点分析

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国内白糖现货行情

  • 现货价格刺激下，南方甘蔗糖产区陆续有糖厂开榨，新糖陆续上市。
  • 升贴水在11月14日回落到200元左右水平后又攀升至400元/吨的高位。
  • 这是原因旧糖已经清库，目前升水代表的是新糖的价格。
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原白糖期货价格走势

  • 国内市场方面郑糖主力回落至5572价位，新糖上市，放储入市都将施加阶段性的压力。
  • 国际市场方面目前市场情绪相对乐观，而由于巴西雷亚尔的贬值，目前原糖价格已到达生产商的作价价位。生产商套保将施压糖价。
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截至11月食糖产量可能达记录高位

  • 19/20榨季10月份食糖产量约40万吨，同比增加约10万吨。
  • 截至11月底，预估累计产量可达90万吨，同比增加约17万吨。
  • 这是由于现货价格处于高位，吸引糖厂开榨售糖，实现利润。
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Rosa Li

Rosa graduated from Jinan University in 2012 with a bachelor’s degree in Marketing. Rosa joined Czarnikow in 2014 and has been an analyst for 7 years in our Guangzhou office managing the data capture, analysis and visualisation within the Chinese sugar markets utilising her skills in SQL, Python and VBA while also providing content for our platform Czapp. Rosa is also responsible for the localization of Czapp in China – Czapp WeChat, she also assists with the commercial marketing in China and works towards strategy with the trading team.

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