Insight Focus
Carriers are cautiously edging back toward the Red Sea. Isolated transits and announcements signal tentative confidence, but security risks and operational uncertainty mean a broad return remains fragile. Longer transit times, weak reliability and looming overcapacity suggest a full normalisation is unlikely before 2026.
Ocean carriers seem to believe in a gradual return to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, as Houthi attacks appear to have eased over the past several months. Apart from the fact that every optimistic scenario could be upended by a single attack or threat from the unpredictable Houthi group, there are still several issues shipping stakeholders must consider before celebrating a “return to the old normal.”
Signs of Return
French container giant CMA CGM made the first move in early December by announcing that its INDAMEX service will transit the Suez Canal on both fronthaul and backhaul voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast. CMA CGM had previously attempted to reintroduce the restricted areas into its services, but developments at the time did not allow these attempts to continue.
Source: Xeneta
Maersk followed, and recently the US-flagged Maersk Denver transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal in mid-January, becoming the second Maersk vessel in just over a month to pass through the Red Sea. The sailing followed a similar voyage by Maersk Sebarok in December.
At the same time, Eli Glickman, CEO of Israeli container carrier ZIM, stated that his company is awaiting insurance approval to resend some of its vessels through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
Overall, it appears that a large-scale return of container ships to the Red Sea could likely occur in 2026.
Longer Transit Times and Weaker Reliability Persist
The announcement by CMA CGM, the test voyages by Maersk vessels, and ZIM’s statements regarding the reuse of the Red Sea cannot instantly erase the new reality the shipping industry has experienced in recent years, nor the structural challenges that have emerged.
The following table shows that transit times on fronthaul services to Europe remain significantly extended, schedule reliability is much lower, and both spot and long-term freight rates still have room to fall before returning to October 2023 levels, which represent the pre–Red Sea crisis period.
Source: Xeneta
Potential Knock-on Effects
Beyond individual carrier strategies, a broader return would have system-wide consequences. If a massive, large-scale return occurs, congestion levels are likely to rise sharply at ports worldwide as networks readjust and container ships begin to arrive simultaneously. This could be mitigated through a gradual return, but if one or two major carriers opt for an aggressive strategy, pressure on others will be substantial.
“This would be a reversal of the congestion seen in 2024, when services were adjusted to Cape of Good Hope routes immediately after the crisis,” Xeneta noted in its report.
Overcapacity Set to Worsen
A full return to the Red Sea would free up additional vessel capacity, exacerbating the existing oversupply in the container shipping market and placing further downward pressure on freight rates. According to Xeneta, this may also finally lead to an increase in idle tonnage and ship demolitions.
“This is tricky timing for shippers tendering new contracts for 2026. Against this potential for falling freight rates, shippers should consider index-linked contracts or fixed renegotiation triggers based on market movements, either by date or by percentage shifts in rates,” Xeneta advised.
Source: Sea Intelligence
Why Ocean Carriers Are Not Rushing Back
While announcements and statements may create a sense of confidence and optimism, in reality, ocean carriers have little reason to rush back to the Red Sea. Considerable effort was required to make Cape of Good Hope rotations operational, making a hasty return to the Suez Canal a significant risk.
Norwegian shipping market analytics platform Xeneta has cautiously highlighted five important points that shippers, in particular, should consider in the event of a major resumption of this critical trade lane.
Given that the industry has just gone through a year full of changes and challenges—including the complete restructuring of container alliances, Trump’s second tariff era, and ongoing geopolitical disruptions—it is understandable that carriers want to preserve as much stability as possible during this transition period.
This may be even more critical for certain carriers, such as Gemini partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, which have promised customers an arrival reliability of 90%. Achieving this target could prove extremely difficult amid the disruptions and challenges that a rapid return to the Red Sea could create.
