Insight Focus
- Exports of most fertilisers dropped by around 60%.
- Chinese imports fell too.
- Global fertiliser prices fall on high stocks, low buying.
Source: Shutterstock
Restrictions on fertilizer exports imposed by the Chinese government are working and first-half data from Chinese Customs shows a sharp drop in all major varieties bar ammonium sulphate in the first half of 2022.
Urea exports plunged 67% year on year to 870k tonnes. Di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) exports plummeted 61% to 1.6m tonnes. Mono-ammonium phosphate exports shrank 60% to 1m tonnes.
There was a tiny rise of 0.4% in ammonium sulphate exports to 5.7m tonnes.
Export restrictions are expected to be in force until June 2023.
MOP (potash) imports were 7% lower at 4.8m tonnes and compound (NPK) fertiliser imports dropped 42% to 440k tonnes.
Prices Slide across All Regions
Source: Shutterstock
On the international stage we see fertilizer prices dropping across the board. Potash prices in Brazil dropped a further USD 50 this week to USD 800-850 a tonne CFR, 30% since the high hit in April. Massive H1 buying has filled inventories to bursting and there may be further price erosion in Brazil over the weeks ahead.
Phosphate prices are also under pressure, with almost no demand in Latin/South America due to high stocks and demand destruction. In addition, a massive drop in sulphur prices has made buyers push for lower prices.
Urea prices are under pressure as well with Brazil, Europe and India needing to step up their buying if prices aren’t to fall further.
Other Insights That May Be of Interest…
China’s Agricultural Output to Drop on Substandard Fertiliser Use?
How Farmers are Working Around High Fertiliser Prices and Shortages
