Insight Focus
The semaglutide patent is set to expire March 20 in Brazil. The arrival of generic versions could drive market growth of 15% to 30% following expiration. However, we expect the number of users to remain limited due to low average incomes and affordability constraints.
The patent for semaglutide is due to expire in Brazil on March 20, which raises questions about food consumption in the Brazilian market. Semaglutide is the active ingredient in GLP-1 receptor agonist medications that reduce the feeling of hunger. Anvisa, the Brazilian regulatory agency, has already received 14 requests for generic drug registrations.
Manufacturers of generic versions of weight-loss drugs are eyeing a market that, according to estimates from banks such as BTG Pactual and Santander, was worth between BRL 6 billion (USD 1.1 billion) and BRL 10 billion (USD 1.9 billion) in Brazil in 2025. The sector is set to register growth of 15% to 30% this year, driven by the expectation of a price drop of around 30% provided by generic drugs.
Weight loss drugs
Currently, the monthly cost of treatment by medications like Ozempic is approximately BRL 900-1,300 (USD 170.8-246.6), a price level inaccessible to a large part of the population.
Even with the arrival of generic versions, the outlook for GLP-1s in Brazil is not expected to change substantially. More than 60% of the population earns up to twice the minimum wage—equivalent to just over BRL 3,000 (USD 569.2) per month.
Source: IBGE
Sales of weight-loss drugs are expected to remain concentrated in high-income countries, such as the US and parts of Europe, where pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with brands such as Ozempic and Wegovy, have been setting revenue records.
In Brazil, there are fewer than 1 million users of these medications per year, according to the most optimistic projections—equivalent to less than 0.5% of the Brazilian population. Meanwhile, in the US, 12.4% of the adult population uses this type of medication, according to Gallup’s National Health and Well-being Index.
There is no indication to date that the drug will be offered by the public health system or private plans in Brazil. Therefore, any impact on consumption should be limited, at least in the short and medium term.
Impacts on Consumption in the Long Term
In the long term, however, the story may be different. Advances are on the horizon that could shake up the market—and stimulate the consumption of weight-loss drugs. Earlier this year, Novo Nordisk launched a pill version of Wegovy, eliminating the discomfort of injections. The company is awaiting approval from Anvisa to market the drug in Brazil.
At the same time, some laboratories have been conducting studies on new GLP-1 agonists, such as orforglipron. In China, a nasal spray based on semaglutide is in the testing phase. These products should reach the market at more affordable prices, putting pressure on the competition.
As a result, changes in consumption habits already observed in countries with different income levels, including Brazil, may intensify. GLP-1 modifies the food reward system, reducing cravings for foods high in fat and sugar—meaning a diet based on natural products tends to gain favour.
In Brazil, demand for fresh foods, such as fruits and vegetables, has been growing, driven by factors ranging from increased concern for wellbeing to cost reductions. Consumption of these items increased from approximately 74 million tonnes in 2016 to 80 million tonnes in 2024, according to Euromonitor.
Source: Euromonitor
The increased demand for non-alcoholic beer, driven especially by Generation Z (born between 1995 and 2010), is even more impactful and accurately reflects the phenomenon related to the demand for healthier foods and beverages.
Source: Euromonitor
Sales have jumped by almost 700% in the last decade, according to Euromonitor, following a trend observed in developed countries.
It remains to be seen how much advances in the pharmaceutical industry will influence the consumption landscape in Brazil, but it is very likely to depend highly on variables such as the purchasing power of Brazilians and the acceptance, over time, of new classes of medicines.
