CS Brazil – 20/21 Already Ending?

  • It looks like 20/21 could end sooner than expected, 3 mills have stopped this fortnight.
  • This is due to the strong crushing pace result of the dry spell.
  • It also takes a toll on cane harvested from now on as a drop in agricultural yield.

Summary Table 1H September



Pushing the Pace of Operations

  • In this fortnight, crush was able to progress without interruptions due to excellent weather conditions.
  • Total crush was 44mmt – 12% higher yoy – taking total cumulative crush to 459mmt, which is the highest on record for the period

CS Daily Crush per Fortnight – keeping the pace


  • We reiterate that the crush level is a reflection of dry weather and not necessarily cane availability.
  • According to UNICA, 3 mills have reported the early end of operations already in the 1H of September.
  • And we are afraid that could be the case for several mills in the upcoming fortnights.

Cane Health


  • Even though UNICA states in its report that the crush is around 75% done – which would translate into a total projected for the season of over 610mmt – we find ourselves a bit sceptical of a crush higher than last year.
  • So far, ag yields data have not showed the impact of the drier weather due to the cane stage and cane age – younger canes have been responsible for a great share of the harvest so far. 

CS Variation from Hist. Average Rains – from April until September, rains this season are 36% lower

  • However, since April rains are 36% below historical average.
  • This pattern affects specially cane to be harvested at the end of the season.
  • Is a sudden end to 2020/21 season in the works? 

ATR Keeps Rising

  • On the other hand, dry weather helps the sugar concentration in cane, ATR reached 159.1kg/ton in the 1H of September – this is the highest levels since 2010 and a 3.2% increase yoy.
  • The combination of high ATR, good pace of operations and production mix maximized to sugar output, the sweetener production reached a cumulative of 29mmt.

CS Fortnightly ATR – Highest level since 2010


  • Mills are expected to remain maximizing cane allocation to sugar production.

Ethanol Market

  • In the 1H September, mills reported 813mi litres of total hydrous ethanol sales.
  • It seems as hydrous reached a ceiling in sales, having averaged around 800mi litres per fortnight in the past 2 months.

CS Monthly Hydrous Domestic Sales – slow recovery


Sign Up For Your Free Account On Czapp

Want to receive free tailored notifications straight to your inbox?

Join Czapp

Ana Zancaner

Ana graduated from Insper University Sao Paulo in 2013, with a bachelor’s degree in business administration. She joined Czarnikow as an intern in 2013 and is now our senior analyst in our Sao Paulo office. At Czarnikow she is responsible mainly for analysis of the Brazilian sugar and ethanol sector but supporting other consulting requests as well.

See More From This Author