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Mains Points
- Weak harvest and agricultural produtivity, but within our expectations
- Although UNICA mentions 530mmt of cane for the crop, our estimates are 520mmt and 32.5mmt of sugar.
- Anhydrous sales remain strong, totaling 426 million liters in the past fortnight.
Crop 2021/22 – 1H Agust
12% of the available area was affected by Frosts
- In line with expectations, in the first half of August, 44.6mmt were processed, around 2mmt less yoy.
- In cumulative terms, CS processed 350 mmt, down 7% from the previous year.
- Our estimate is that until the end of the crop CS will be able to process another 170 mmt of cane, totaling 520 mmt for 21/22.
- UNICA reports that after a survey with CS mills, this cycle should process 530mmt – with a downward bias.
- So far, agricultural productivity has decreased by 12.8% compared to the previous crop: 75.1 t/ha against 86.1 t/ha.
- Result of the combination of drought and frost.
- Data from Unica show that frost affected about 12% of the area available for harvesting.
- The frosts required a change in the harvest schedule, accelerating the pace of operations to avoid even greater losses.
Fire Alert at the Canefields
- With dry and hot weather, some fires are already being registered in the Center-South.
- Accidental fires damage younger cane fields, with some areas being lost or showing significant losses in productivity.
Access the Czapp interactive data session and see the rainfall forecast for the CS states
- For the last fifteen days of August, there is no forecast of rain, further increasing the risk of fire in the sugarcane fields
Ethanol Market
- With the advance of vaccination, movement in the streets is returning to pre-pandemic levels.
- Which further stimulates fuel demand.
- Anhydrous continues to drive demand for biofuel given the favorable parity for gasoline.
- So far, 426.42 million liters of anhydrous ethanol have been sold – 12% more than in 2020.
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