CS Brazil: Sugar or Ethanol? 16th September 2025

Raw Sugar Update

There was an early surge of buying for the Oct’25/March’26 spread this morning, which following a weaker start for all prompts brought Oct’25 into positive ground above 16.00. Almost 9,000 lots changed hands across the first 30 minutes as the value moved from -0.72 points to -0.58 points, a significant push for the spread until sellers saw the opportunity and sent the value back towards the mid -0.60’s. At this stage, the flat price settled down with Oct’25 holding near to 16.00 and Mar’26 in the upper 16.60’s to provide some stable consolidation ahead of the afternoon. The arrival of US specs drew a burst of selling which sent March’26 quickly back down to 16.54 and changed the tone for the afternoon, with the market now looking for support from consumer interest in the face of the defensive spec activity. Spreads were still dominating the volume with the trade still active from both sides while hedge funds move remaining shorts out of the spot, with the earlier rally mostly eroded as trading took place closer to the -0.70-point mark. Meanwhile the flat price was still stagnant and the nearby two prompts both struggled to move more than 10 points from their lows as we reached the last hour, and the market finally closed at 15.90 with a brief uptick in volume towards the end. 

White Sugar Update

It was a wild start for Dec’25 as prices swing between $462.90 and $470.30 across the opening minutes as traders reacted to last night’s Oct’25 expiry. Soon things started to calm and given the initial craziness it was disappointing to see prices calm in the $467.00 region, only mildly above last nights close and suggesting a continuation of the recent quiet conditions. Through the morning there was a slow climb back to the $469.00 area, but little else to report with volumes having dropped to low levels. The early afternoon saw the picture change with fresh selling arriving in conjunction with the No.11 market and sending the price back to the mid $460’s, though in more general terms the market was holding its value better than it has over the last few days with the March/March’26 white premium moving back to the $93 area. Through the later afternoon, prices sat in front of the lows amidst quiet trading, showing no inclination to move very far. The market finally closed at $466.00 with a brief uptick in buying pressure towards the end. The Oct’25 expiry saw a total of 5,215 lots (260,750mt) tendered, the details of which can be seen below.