The market gapped lower this morning leaving Ju’22 to trade between 19.41 and 19.27 over the course of the first few hours. There was no obvious trigger for this lower opening given the steady nature of the macro environment and lack of any fresh news, although recent weeks have seen No.11 failing to follow the significant gains in the white market and so it may simply reflect the surplus and No.11 doing its own thing at the present time. Moving into the afternoon the market moved from the narrow range with further downside extension to target the remaining 19.23/19.20 gap which has proved so difficult to fill over recent sessions. This was duly achieved and a break of 19.20 soon afterwards triggered some spec sell stops to extend the range down to 19.11. Jul’22 was also encountering selling from the spread with today marking the first day of the index fund roll ahead of the expiry at the end of the month. Strong volume was being matched for Jul/Oct’22 as the differential moved to -0.25 points intra-day, weakness which again is not conducive to the positivity that some continue to exude. With the market now at the lowest levels seen since 13th May and the fundamental picture continuing to show a surplus there was additional spec liquidation seen through the later part of the session, eventually leading to a daily low at 19.84 and settlement only just above at 18.97. This negative close combined with the gaps left over the past two sessions representing an island reversal suggest that there may be further liquidation to follow with little support now found until we reach the congestion with side of 18.50 from the series of daily lows recorded last month.

 

undefined

undefined

undefined

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

More from this author