Raw Sugar Update 

The market was mildly weaker during early trading though found some support in the mid 14.20’s, and this provided the base from which prices were able to hold sideways for the next few hours. The lack of upside opportunity was notable with March’26 failing to work above 14.34, and while the price did not break from its narrow band until the middle of the afternoon there was an inevitability that movement to fresh ground would mean additional downside exploration. Initially the price only slipped to 14.16 but there was greater pressure applied through the late afternoon and another extension to 14.08 left the market within a few points of the 14.07 recent low and 14.04 contract low. Again, we were seeing the bulk of the days volume change hands in the March/May’26 spread, where having reached the heart of the roll the total traded was again heading towards six figures. Its impact was to knock the differential by a few more points to lows at 0.35 points, though this value held through the later afternoon as the flat price reached its lows. Pressure remained upon the market heading in towards the close and March’26 ended the day at 14.12, while March/May’26 was at 0.36 points on volume of 124,000 lots. Neither of these inspire great confidence and bring into question whether the market is now poised to make another test of the contract lows and look towards a 13c handle for all 2026 positions.  

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.26 14.34 14.08 14.12 -0.23 14.11 154,446 279,013
May’26 13.90 13.94 13.72 13.76 -0.20 13.74 150,001 357,982
Jul’26 13.86 13.90 13.67 13.72 -0.21 13.72 32,176 176,037
Oct’26 14.20 14.21 13.99 14.04 -0.21 14.05 17,345 110,620
Mar’27 14.90 14.92 14.70 14.75 -0.21 14.76 7,003 97,305
May’27 14.73 14.75 14.53 14.59 -0.20 14.60 1,105 24,843
Jul’27 14.71 14.73 14.52 14.58 -0.20 14.55 310 16,213
Oct’27 15.06 15.06 14.76 14.82 -0.20 14.82 328 16,075
Mar’28 15.54 15.54 15.36 15.42 -0.19 15.36 186 5,556
May’28 15.31 15.33 15.21 15.26 -0.19 15.21 107 2,787
Jul’28 15.30 15.30 15.20 15.24 -0.19 15.20 94 3,390
                 
Total             363,101 1,089,821

White Sugar Update 

There was some mixed trading through the early part of the morning, though it was sellers who were driving their agenda with greater force and so prices worked a little lower. May’26 reached $410.40 by late morning, still finding support against underlying consumer interest, a factor which continued to hold the price through the early afternoon with specs holding back from selling aggressively at present. The same could not be said for the spot as further spread selling impacted upon the price significantly and sent March’26 to new contract lows, and in turn both its and the continuation charts down through $400.00. With open interest still at 25,417 lots there may yet be more pressure to follow for the spreads, though todays decrease to -$12.00 for March/May’26 makes it increasingly likely that expiry will remain negative. May’26 made its way to new lows midway through the afternoon and a second wave of selling saw it to $408.90 in the final hour though there was no interest shown to test chart support at $406.00. MOC selling ensured that prices remained at the bottom of the days range with May’26 settling at $409.50, while at the top of the board March’26 sends negative signals with a close at $398.10 that leaves March/May’26 valued at -$11.40. For the white premiums there was limited movement and May/May’26 was valued at $106.15.  

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 404.40 405.60 397.10 398.10 -7.30 398.00 12,003 25,417
May’26 413.00 414.30 408.90 409.50 -4.80 409.40 15,287 80,530
Aug’26 406.50 407.60 402.10 402.50 -5.50 402.30 5,628 30,971
Oct’26 404.00 404.30 399.70 400.00 -5.10 399.80 1,896 10,900
Dec’26 403.90 405.50 401.10 401.40 -4.50 401.10 1,043 4,455
Mar’27 407.40 409.80 405.60 405.90 -3.90 405.70 714 7,449
May’27 409.30 411.90 407.80 408.00 -3.10 407.80 143 2,338
Aug’27 411.50 413.20 409.30 409.50 -2.80 409.30 64 2,318
Oct’27 413.10 415.40 413.10 412.50 -2.70 415.00 13 1,066
Dec’27 418.40 420.70 418.40 417.90 -2.90 419.60 13 569
Mar’28 424.60 426.20 424.20 424.00 -2.90 426.10 7 456
May’28 428.70 430.10 427.60 427.60 -3.50 429.80 14 332
Aug’28 431.10 431.10 431.10 431.00 -3.80 431.10 2 21
Oct’28          –              –              –   435.00 -3.80 441.70            –   9
Total             36,827 166,831

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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