Raw Sugar Update

It was a mixed start to the session as Jul’25 initially flipped either side of unchanged, but as trading settled down some mild gains were cemented with the price held in the 16.70’s. There was a brief push up to 16.82 but that aside we remained confined to the narrow band in the 16.70’s throughout the morning with no intent shown to move the market in either direction. This frustrating scenario endured well into the afternoon, and it was only some light selling which materialized later in the day which altered the picture slightly by sending the spot back down through the 16.60’s and into the red. While the market did not erode at any great pace it was finding pressure from specs/small traders returning to sell again against the fundamental outlook with their pressure leading the price to 16.50 before any noteworthy covering took place. This looked to hold the market through the final hour, however more pressure was applied by the spec shorts during the closing stages to ensure the session ended on a weak note. Jul/Oct’25 was slightly lower at -0.37 points as it continues to play the same band on high levels of roll activity while Jul’25 settled at 16.48, undoing any positive impetus from yesterday and maintaining focus on recent lows.   

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Jul’25 16.67 16.82 16.42 16.48 -0.19 16.46 99,973 259,639
Oct’25 17.03 17.15 16.79 16.85 -0.16 16.83 81,198 295,123
Mar’26 17.52 17.65 17.32 17.36 -0.16 17.37 26,269 152,555
May’26 17.08 17.19 16.92 16.95 -0.12 16.97 10,037 64,904
Jul’26 16.90 17.00 16.76 16.78 -0.11 16.80 6,675 51,146
Oct’26 17.04 17.12 16.91 16.92 -0.10 16.95 1,562 33,150
Mar’27 17.38 17.50 17.30 17.31 -0.09 17.31 440 18,380
May’27 17.14 17.16 16.99 16.99 -0.08 17.00 184 8,608
Jul’27 17.04 17.04 16.88 16.88 -0.08 16.89 117 9,932
Oct’27 17.08 17.08 17.01 17.01 -0.08 17.03 54 6,272
Mar’28 17.35 17.35 17.35 17.35 -0.09 17.35 4 859
                 
Total             226,513 900,568

White Sugar Update

Yesterdays buoyant showing rippled into the opening as Aug’25 started the day a couple of dollars higher, although the gains were short-lived and the market soon settled to look back at overnight levels. Activity then fell away and against very low volume the market proceeded to track sideways, centred around $473.00 with very little movement for several hours. We were well into the afternoon before any fresh interest was uncovered, and there was a strong air of familiarity about the way in which the funds/specs returned to push the short side again and send Aug’25 back into the upper $460’s. This movement maintained across the rest of the afternoon, and it was not only the flat price which was impacted with some of yesterdays white premium gain also eroding as Aug/Jul’25 edged back down to $102.50. Aug’25 made its low at $466.60 ahead of the close, and in the circumstances held up relatively well as it detached from some late No.11 weakness to maintain its value and in so doing bring the white premium value back up to $104.50. Aug/Oct’25 meanwhile ended the day little changed at $4.40 and with Aug’25 closing at $467.80 we see the wider market parameters unchanged for another day.

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 474.40 475.30 466.60 467.80 -4.60 466.90 6,376 49,329
Oct’25 470.30 471.40 462.60 463.40 -5.20 462.90 3,961 28,580
Dec’25 470.60 471.40 463.90 464.60 -4.40 464.50 1,264 11,742
Mar’26 475.40 476.00 469.20 469.90 -3.90 469.60 504 9,885
May’26 474.80 474.90 470.90 471.10 -3.50 470.90 130 4,598
Aug’26 472.00 472.30 471.20 471.00 -3.40 471.40 99 2,664
Oct’26 472.20 472.20 472.20 471.50 -3.30 472.20 13 1,379
Dec’26 475.00 475.00 475.00 474.70 -2.80 475.00 7 1,107
Mar’27 480.20 480.20 480.20 480.00 -1.90 480.20 1 470
May’27 483.20 483.20 483.20 482.80 -1.50 483.20 1 220
Aug’27 484.20 484.20 484.20 483.60 -1.10 484.20 1 41
Oct’27 484.80 484.80 484.80 484.00 -1.00 484.80 1 76
Dec’27          –              –              –   482.80 -1.00            –                 –  
Mar’28          –              –              –   482.10 -1.00            –                 –  
Total             12,358 110,091

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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