Raw Sugar Update 

The market was faced with a lower call due to lower crude values and macro influence and duly started the day at 14.30 basis May’26. Additional selling followed and within minutes the price had slipped to 14.17 to match last Fridays high and perfectly fill the chart gap established yesterday morning. This satisfied those of a technical persuasion and soon afterwards the price returned to the upper 14.30’s, although the wider influence was having an impact and the recovery stalled. Later in the morning things did begin to pick up again and this time the movement came in a more sustainable way with a more gradual rise bringing us ahead to 14.57 just after noon, and in so doing also removing any technical connotations from the opening gap on the intra-day charts. The Americas morning brought some additional selling to the fray with grower pricing noted while some specs also played the short side against the lower energy / higher stocks picture. Their pressure sent the market back to 14.23 before short covering kicked in, but while the negative dynamic remained in play through the afternoon there was no return to the morning lows. Instead, prices sat towards the centre of the day’s range, remaining “sideways” ahead of the close. There was a good deal of spread pressure being applied through the afternoon, and despite the resilience of the flat price as it maintained away from the lows May/Jul’26 was falling to new lows at -0.15 points, continuing a pattern which started a week ago. There call was uneventful which left May’26 to remain mid-range and close at 14.38.  

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
May’26 14.30 14.57 14.17 14.38 -0.21 14.32 105,847 472,774
Jul’26 14.36 14.66 14.28 14.51 -0.17 14.45 68,320 209,889
Oct’26 14.75 15.02 14.64 14.89 -0.13 14.83 30,697 152,057
Mar’27 15.47 15.70 15.30 15.57 -0.11 15.51 8,552 127,442
May’27 15.30 15.50 15.14 15.39 -0.09 15.33 2,341 32,429
Jul’27 15.22 15.51 15.16 15.41 -0.07 15.38 816 21,273
Oct’27 15.60 15.80 15.46 15.70 -0.07 15.71 395 14,737
Mar’28 16.19 16.24 16.19 16.32 -0.05 16.24 207 6,304
May’28          –              –              –   16.14 -0.05 16.15 107 3,289
Jul’28          –              –              –   16.11 -0.05 16.12 81 3,760
Oct’28          –              –              –   16.32 -0.05 16.34            –   1,761
                 
Total             217,363 1,045,715

White Sugar Update 

Lower values for the energy sector had already elicited a reaction from No.11 this morning and then whites reacted with initial prints at $411.00 before quickly finding some buying interest. Within 30-minutes the initial rapid recovery had extended back to $419.00 and minimised the net daily losses, and while there was then a cooling off period it was clear that downside was not being challenged in any significant way. Prices levelled out in the teens before looking north again later in the morning with a push into some light selling as the front end of the board turned green and recorded highs at $421.70. In so doing all technical concerns were removed with all gaps now filled on both daily and intra-day charts, though further progression was not possible as the arrival of participants in the Americas drew in some fresh selling that placed a lid over the market. May’26 fell to an afternoon low at $414.20 as the pressure was applied before working back up through the range to sit above $420.00 during the final hour as it looked to control losses. The effort was aided by buying of the front month spreads with opportunistic interest having generated following yesterdays sharp decline in values, and this allowed May/Aug’26 to return to -$3.30 intra-day before easing back to end at -$4.80. Similarly, there was variance for the white premium values with May/May’26 regaining some ground to end at $101.40 while Aug/Jul’26 was marginally softer at $103.30. The later stages saw May’26 pushed back into the range with settlement made at $418.40. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
May’26 411.00 421.70 411.00 418.40 -2.10 417.70 15,553 71,261
Aug’26 420.90 426.80 420.00 423.20 -4.50 422.40 10,911 41,437
Oct’26 421.00 427.10 420.70 425.00 -3.10 423.90 4,578 17,078
Dec’26 423.00 428.40 421.70 427.20 -1.90 426.00 1,735 7,762
Mar’27 428.50 432.10 425.50 431.10 -1.50 429.80 546 8,417
May’27 428.50 431.60 426.40 431.70 -0.60 431.60 192 2,871
Aug’27 428.00 431.40 427.40 431.90            –   431.40 36 2,474
Oct’27 430.90 432.70 429.80 434.30 0.20 431.40 16 1,191
Dec’27 437.90 438.20 435.30 439.90 0.20 437.00 8 706
Mar’28 444.50 444.50 442.20 446.50 0.30 443.60 9 521
May’28 449.90 449.90 449.90 451.70 0.30 449.90 2 406
Aug’28          –              –              –   455.90 0.30            –   147
Oct’28          –              –              –   459.40 0.30            –   9
Dec’28          –              –              –   462.60 0.30            –                –  
Total             33,586 154,280

 

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Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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