Raw Sugar Update

The market received a small boost as the new week got underway with a recovery from initial 14.08 lows that moved March’26 up to 14.26 after 30 minutes of trading. The upward movement then extended on to 14.39, but reminiscent of the upside efforts on Friday we then saw the buying start to fade, and prices eased back into the range. The rest of the morning saw us following the recent script / formula and played out quietly towards the upper end of the early range, once more placing the market in position to try and build a recovery should additional buying be uncovered. There were efforts to work higher during the afternoon, and these did yield new session highs at 14.42 along the way, however the buying effort was still primarily being made by smaller traders and once they had loaded up with longs the movement stalled. Position liquidation midway through the afternoon sent the price quickly back to the mid 14.20’s. and while this did not change general parameters it was of sufficient aggression to curtail buying efforts for the remainder of the session. A further drop to 14.12 wiped out most of the daily gain, though with no further pain endured the market was able to claw back up ahead of the close and post modest gains. March’26 settlement level was reached at 14.20, leaving chart parameters unmoved.    

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.17 14.42 14.08 14.20 0.10 14.26 55,843 483,461
May’26 13.85 14.01 13.73 13.79 0.06 13.86 25,261 170,718
Jul’26 13.75 13.92 13.65 13.70 0.02 13.79 17,927 112,505
Oct’26 13.97 14.18 13.94 13.97 0.02 14.05 6,268 73,573
Mar’27 14.68 14.83 14.60 14.62 0.02 14.72 3,094 40,495
May’27 14.56 14.67 14.46 14.48 0.02 14.57 1,544 21,357
Jul’27 14.56 14.65 14.48 14.49 0.03 14.57 943 15,491
Oct’27 14.77 14.90 14.74 14.76 0.05 14.83 486 13,732
Mar’28 15.45 15.47 15.33 15.35 0.07 15.42 391 4,896
May’28 15.25 15.26 15.21 15.23 0.11 15.23 189 2,231
Jul’28 15.25 15.27 15.23 15.24 0.12 15.24 149 2,097
                 
Total             112,095 940,556

White Sugar Update

Early trading took place near to overnight levels; however, the mood was generally firm with some assorted buying from end users / consumers taking the March’26 contract back up above $410.00 and keeping the picture steady across the morning. Dec’25 continues to be well traded alongside, and with an open interest of 22,163 lots remaining there is still plentiful spread activity taking place as positions continue to roll forward. Sellers have been dominating the Dec’25/March’26 spread across the last few days and that remained the case today with the value eroding and only a small ‘premium’ remaining for the spread value as we moved through noon. The Dec’25 struggle was not hindering 2026 positions and they moved ahead to new highs through the afternoon, March’26 reaching $412.70 as it tracked a similar area to that seen over the second half of last week. The gains were mostly eroded midway through the afternoon as small traders closed long and sent the price tumbling through a vacuum with the sudden failure causing most traders to then stand back and leave the market tracking sideways. There was little excitement across the later stages, though March’26 did claw back some lost ground and ended the day in credit at $408.20. Dec’25/March’26 had dropped to -$0.40 discount before ending the day back at a small $0.80 premium, while white premiums ended the day showing minimal changes with March/March’26 valued at $95.15. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Dec’25 411.50 413.70 406.40 408.20 -1.40 410.20 13,806 22,163
Mar’26 407.90 412.70 405.30 408.10 2.20 409.30 16,760 68,742
May’26 406.00 408.70 402.10 405.00 2.70 406.20 4,099 25,831
Aug’26 400.00 404.20 399.10 402.10 3.30 403.60 3,173 13,518
Oct’26 399.30 402.70 398.60 400.90 2.90 400.40 1,106 5,163
Dec’26 402.90 405.40 402.90 403.80 2.50 403.50 558 2,791
Mar’27 410.80 410.80 408.90 409.20 2.10 408.90 36 2,511
May’27          –              –              –   414.40 1.70 416.50 7 926
Aug’27          –              –              –   418.80 1.50 421.80            –   659
Oct’27          –              –              –   421.60 1.40 424.70            –   571
Dec’27          –              –              –   426.40 1.80 429.40            –   329
Mar’28          –              –              –   432.40 2.00 434.70            –   192
May’28          –              –              –   436.50 2.10            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   439.20 2.10            –                 –  
Total             39,545 143,542

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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