Raw Sugar Update

Prices chopped around during the early part of the session with Oct’25 initially sold down from 15.91 to 15.70 before making an about turn and erasing the losses. Having moved back from these lows the market was buoyed by a little spec and consumer interest and rallied to 15.94, though as with yesterday it was lacking the necessary interest to mount a push back above 16.00. Trading calmed during the later morning as prices moved about the upper part of the range until a little more buying arrived from those in the Americas to again push the highs and extend the band by a solitary point to 15.95. This level provided a wall of resistance that the market batted against for the next hour until finally succumbing to some long liquidation and returning to the range once more. Over half of the nearby volume was again being generated by the Oct’25/March’26 spread, though the quantities changing hands were lower than yesterday and only picked up to larger numbers during the last two hours. This coincided with the market making a push to new highs which culminated in highs at 16.02, though they did not sustain into the close and those of a more positive persuasion will have been disappointed by a closing value of 15.93 following late position squaring. 

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Oct’25 15.88 16.02 15.70 15.93 0.09 15.89 82,851 252,235
Mar’26 16.53 16.64 16.35 16.57 0.08 16.54 75,366 375,682
May’26 16.16 16.28 16.00 16.23 0.09 16.20 17,112 120,294
Jul’26 16.05 16.14 15.88 16.09 0.07 16.06 11,134 79,063
Oct’26 16.29 16.35 16.12 16.32 0.07 16.28 5,238 53,657
Mar’27 16.84 16.89 16.69 16.86 0.06 16.83 1,991 27,957
May’27 16.42 16.53 16.36 16.49 0.03 16.49 700 15,336
Jul’27 16.27 16.38 16.22 16.32 0.01 16.32 313 12,440
Oct’27 16.40 16.49 16.35 16.44 0.01 16.43 289 12,526
Mar’28 16.83 16.91 16.81 16.87 -0.01 16.86 185 3,253
May’28 16.57 16.57 16.55 16.61 -0.01 16.57 79 1,363
                 
Total             195,258 953,806

White Sugar Update

It was a mixed start to trading as initial lower prints were gathered up to set Dec’25 on a path to additional recovery. With little resistance in place at these lower levels the price was abler to climb up to $469.00 across the first two hours, though the price then topped out as the first selling of note knocked us back down by around $3.00. Sitting comfortably in the range it was smaller traders that increasingly began to dominate the outright movements and their desire remained to pursue the upside with a couple of failed efforts to revisit the highs failing in the $468.00 area. By the middle of the afternoon these failures drew some selling, but here also it seems that the sense of apathy outside of the usual protagonists would not let values move far either way and from the $464.50 area prices once more swung to the upside. This latest move drew up prices to sit just shy of the morning highs heading into the final hour before pushing on to 469.70 ahead of the close. This effort yielded little however as a late bout of liquidation sent the market back down and left settlement at $467.00, leaving the market still struggling to build any real momentum.     
Oct’25 open interest fell by less than may have been anticipated to now stand at 16,607 lots. Spreads continued to be well traded and alongside AA volume we should continue to see this figure diminish into expiry as non-deliverable sugar hedges are moved. Oct/Dec’25 ended the day firmer at $22.90 while the Oct/Oct’25 white premium also widened and was valued at $138.70.      

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Oct’25 482.00 493.00 481.40 489.90 6.60 488.40 10,721 16,607
Dec’25 462.60 469.70 461.80 467.00 3.40 465.70 12,789 69,490
Mar’26 456.20 462.40 454.90 460.90 4.20 459.60 4,911 33,071
May’26 455.60 461.30 454.30 460.10 4.50 459.30 1,293 11,305
Aug’26 455.00 460.20 454.50 459.50 4.50 459.10 398 5,582
Oct’26 455.90 461.00 455.80 460.30 4.40 460.10 212 3,340
Dec’26 464.30 464.30 463.00 463.30 4.70 463.20 17 2,231
Mar’27          –              –              –   468.10 5.40 462.40            –   1,113
May’27          –              –              –   469.50 5.50 463.70            –   462
Aug’27          –              –              –   470.60 5.70 464.60            –   416
Oct’27          –              –              –   472.10 5.10 466.90            –   365
Dec’27          –              –              –   475.40 4.70 470.70            –   181
Mar’28          –              –              –   479.90 4.30 475.60            –   114
May’28          –              –              –   483.00 4.30 478.50            –   16
Total             30,341 144,293
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Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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