Raw Sugar Update 

Unchanged opening values were seen only briefly as traders took advantage of recent poor performance to pile additional pressure onto the market. This saw March’26 working down through 14.00 within the first hour, and having finally attained new contract lows the pressure remained in place with steady selling ensuring that the price was capped in the 13.90’s. With the whole board under pressure and contract lows being posted aplenty the market had a weak appearance, and though the rate of decline reduced through the later morning against an assortment of end user pricing across 2026 positions there was no interest being shown from traders to seek any cover and reverse losses. The market looked to probe lower on a few occasions through the day but found solid support throughout the 13.80’s which limited losses, as again the March/May’26 spread generated more than two thirds of volume across the front two prompts. The impact of the ongoing index roll generated intra-day lows at 0.30 points, and with only one more day of their rolling schedule to come attention may turn to see whether the differential can recover some ground nearer to expiry at month end. Outright values tracked along in front of the lows throughout the final two hours to leave March’26 closing at 13.84 and May’26 at 13.52, weak levels for the chart that raise questions as to whether continuing pressure from specs and those still underhedged for March’26 will outweigh potential new physical and pricing interest at these lower levels. 

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.10 14.12 13.82 13.84 -0.28 13.86 144,218 237,895
May’26 13.72 13.77 13.48 13.52 -0.24 13.53 148,867 394,031
Jul’26 13.72 13.73 13.47 13.52 -0.20 13.52 34,138 178,214
Oct’26 14.04 14.05 13.81 13.87 -0.17 13.86 16,706 115,374
Mar’27 14.74 14.76 14.52 14.59 -0.16 14.59 10,660 99,460
May’27 14.58 14.58 14.38 14.45 -0.14 14.45 3,240 25,238
Jul’27 14.54 14.54 14.39 14.47 -0.11 14.47 2,754 16,228
Oct’27 14.79 14.79 14.67 14.74 -0.08 14.75 1,026 16,082
Mar’28 15.33 15.40 15.29 15.36 -0.06 15.32 390 5,557
May’28 15.25 15.25 15.15 15.21 -0.05 15.18 233 2,771
Jul’28 15.14 15.17 15.14 15.19 -0.05 15.17 149 3,401
                 
Total             362,381 1,094,251

White Sugar Update 

There was immediate pressure upon the market again this morning which soon sent May’26 down to test initial $406.00 support, and with only scale buying interest in place below the market it did not take long for this level to break. Having done so there was no change to strategy from either side with spec traders continuing to apply pressure and consumers continuing to buy, though the growing size on the long side as we edged closer to $400 did serve to slow the rate of decline. Pressure remained on into the early afternoon and May’26 reached lows at $402.00, though buying ahead of the $399.90 contract low was still preventing larger losses from being incurred. Though prices did not climb very far through the afternoon the market did at least stabilise for all positions forward of May’26, though the same couldn’t be said for March’26 as it limps toward Fridays expiry. With the market running in the free air of contract lows and movements suggesting that there are no willing takers for the delivery the price continued to haemorrhage to afternoon lows at $386.40, and in the process all of the March’26 spreads lost several more dollars, with the headline March/May’26 recording a lowest value of -$18.40. May’26 continued in the $404.50 area throughout the later part of the day and posted a close at $405.00, while March’26 languished just ahead of its lows and ended to $387.20 to value the spread at -$17.80. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 398.00 398.00 386.40 387.20 -10.90 387.40 10,462 20,371
May’26 408.70 409.10 402.00 405.00 -4.50 405.10 20,154 82,710
Aug’26 402.70 402.70 396.00 398.30 -4.20 398.10 6,678 31,428
Oct’26 400.50 400.50 394.30 396.60 -3.40 396.10 1,582 11,140
Dec’26 401.10 401.40 396.20 398.80 -2.60 398.30 608 4,756
Mar’27 406.70 406.70 401.60 404.20 -1.70 403.80 398 7,824
May’27 409.90 409.90 404.60 407.00 -1.00 406.10 115 2,316
Aug’27 408.70 409.30 407.30 409.40 -0.10 408.50 118 2,324
Oct’27 411.90 412.80 410.80 412.80 0.30 412.80 104 1,069
Dec’27 417.50 418.70 416.60 418.60 0.70 418.70 20 571
Mar’28 423.60 423.60 423.00 424.80 0.80 423.00 15 458
May’28 427.40 427.40 427.30 428.80 1.20 427.30 14 343
Aug’28 431.10 431.10 431.10 432.40 1.40 431.10 31 23
Oct’28          –              –              –   436.40 1.40 441.70            –   9
Total             40,299 165,342
                 

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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