Raw Sugar Update 

It was a buoyant start to trading as March’26 immediately traded up into the 14.90’s, potentially setting itself up for another look through 15.00. Having struggled to move beyond 14.98 there was a gradual increase in buying which raised the price to 15.03 before triggering an aggressive burst of interest which accelerated the rise to 15.15 on almost 5,000 lots. There was a large cluster of selling showing at this level and so the rally stalled, though as we moved through noon the price remained comfortably above 15.00 to ensure that the upside remained in close reach. The arrival of US specs drew more buying / short covering which sent the price spiking again to 15.27, just 0.02 points shy of the late November high. With strong producer selling in place around this mark also the price retreated into the range on profit taking, and while the bulls will have wished for prices to hold nearer to the highs it was not to be and the value fell to 14.98 across the ensuing two hours. Through all this movement the nearby spreads were maintaining a tight range, March/May’26 remaining either side of 0.40 points, and though March’26 made stronger gains against the back of the board initially much of the gain was eroded on the retreat this afternoon. Through the last couple of hours there was a sense of calm consolidation with prices looking to maintain a finish above 15c that would provide some chart encouragement, something that was successfully achieved as March’26 moved up to a 15.10 settlement. This leaves some encouragement for buyers as they look to move values into the fresh ground above 15.29, though continuing grower selling will be expected to provide ongoing resistance. 

 

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.83 15.27 14.83 15.10 0.25 15.10 65,924 446,856
May’26 14.45 14.84 14.45 14.70 0.23 14.69 18,446 195,972
Jul’26 14.45 14.80 14.44 14.67 0.22 14.66 11,799 105,561
Oct’26 14.79 15.08 14.76 14.97 0.21 14.96 6,843 76,632
Mar’27 15.46 15.74 15.43 15.65 0.22 15.64 2,896 51,292
May’27 15.31 15.55 15.31 15.49 0.22 15.48 1,338 20,634
Jul’27 15.30 15.52 15.30 15.47 0.21 15.46 832 14,789
Oct’27 15.54 15.71 15.54 15.71 0.21 15.69 255 14,394
Mar’28 16.14 16.27 16.14 16.27 0.21 16.26 145 4,900
May’28          –              –              –   16.09 0.20 15.79 103 2,540
Jul’28          –              –              –   16.06 0.20 15.84 24 2,289
                 
Total             108,605 935,859

White Sugar Update

March’26 traded up to $427.00 on the opening as the firmer raws market encouraged buying, though through the next hour it struggled to build upon this start with a pullback to $424.60 erasing much of the gain. Calm trading continued as the price slowly started to pick back up, and in time this drew some more aggressive activity that sent us spiking to $429.30 before the morning was through. Despite the presence of some larger sell orders above $430 the market remained generally positive, aided by the supportive No.11 market when buying went patchy. Another push up to $431.00 arrived on the back of spec buying in No.11, and as soon as that concluded the price started to fall back through the range. The struggle could be seen through the March/March’26 white premium, which was sitting in the $95.00 area, possibly because of the selling seen around $97 yesterday deterring buyers. Through the middle of the afternoon, we were again within proximity of the lows, however there was a slight twist over the last two hours when March’26 finally found some buying of substance and moved back up towards $430.00. Settlement was reached at $429.40, a solid footing on which to conclude the week, with March/May’26 slightly firmer at $3.20 and the March/March’26 white premium valued at $96.50.   

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 426.00 431.00 424.60 429.40 5.20 429.30 5,798 77,967
May’26 423.80 428.30 422.30 426.20 4.40 426.10 2,114 31,185
Aug’26 419.90 424.10 418.70 422.00 4.00 421.80 884 17,119
Oct’26 418.20 423.00 417.80 421.00 3.80 420.40 347 6,808
Dec’26 420.70 425.20 420.40 423.40 4.00 423.00 117 2,797
Mar’27 426.30 428.70 424.30 427.10 4.20 426.80 69 2,937
May’27 427.80 427.80 427.10 429.20 4.40 427.10 31 1,094
Aug’27 429.60 431.30 428.50 431.30 4.70 431.30 123 993
Oct’27          –              –              –   433.50 4.70 429.20            –   621
Dec’27          –              –              –   438.00 4.70 432.50            –   404
Mar’28          –              –              –   444.60 4.70 439.50            –   251
May’28          –              –              –   449.00 4.70            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   451.70 4.70            –                 –  
Oct’28          –              –              –   454.10 4.70            –                 –  
Total             9,483 142,322

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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