Raw Sugar Update 

It was yet another very slow start to trading today with the market immediately settling down into a tight trading band that saw March’26 holding a few points either side of the overnight 14.84 value. With nobody prepared to try and generate some movement the market did not move from a 14.80/14.87 band until the early afternoon with some spec interest from the US finally widening the band. Initially this was only to 14.91, but another push midway through the afternoon (possibly in conjunction with some index activity) took the price up to 15.00 and into the inevitable grower scales. The market did not remain at the highs for more than a moment and having fallen back to the lower 14.90’s some long liquidation emerged that sent values tumbling back to marginal new lows. With support from the rebalance still in the background prices did not fall and further, instead levelling out before pulling back to a credit during the final stages. This ensured a moderately higher closing level at 14.89, though with the index rebalance approaching its conclusion and resistance remaining firm above 15.00 the market retains a bearish hue.

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.84 15.00 14.78 14.89 0.05 14.86 60,926 418,612
May’26 14.54 14.63 14.42 14.56 0.05 14.53 32,679 189,822
Jul’26 14.54 14.63 14.45 14.59 0.06 14.57 18,776 135,697
Oct’26 14.84 14.93 14.75 14.90 0.06 14.87 8,250 82,884
Mar’27 15.52 15.60 15.43 15.58 0.06 15.54 4,036 69,074
May’27 15.33 15.41 15.24 15.38 0.05 15.35 1,079 21,103
Jul’27 15.26 15.35 15.21 15.34 0.06 15.34 421 15,329
Oct’27 15.42 15.52 15.40 15.52 0.06 15.51 37 16,049
Mar’28 15.97 16.06 15.97 16.06 0.06 16.05 27 5,515
May’28          –              –              –   15.89 0.06 15.61 8 2,604
Jul’28          –              –              –   15.88 0.06 15.59            –   3,240
                 
Total             126,239 959,929

White Sugar Update 

There was little change to prices as the day got underway and with the outrights only seeing low volume the market settled down to sit within a narrow band throughout the morning. Moving into the afternoon there was a degree of impetus being seen for No.11 but initially we did not react, the result being a dip to $96.00 for the March/March’26 value. This situation did not last and when the market belatedly moved up into fresh ground it did so with a flourish to reach a high at $430.00 in quick time. This strength caused all nearby values to rise with spreads showing strong gains, albeit against some strong rolling volume for March/May’26 where a high was recorded at $3.10 before easing back a little against some long liquidation for the outright. March/March’26 meanwhile moved to fill in orders at $99.00 and subsequently held just shy of this mark as nearby values held net gains, though the rest of the board did not fare so well and returned to a small deficit. Fresh buying arrived during the last hour and ensured that the day concluded with a positive settlement level at $427.30, while March/May’26 ended at $2.50 and the premium was valued at $99.00.

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 423.90 430.00 422.40 427.30 3.90 426.70 14,198 78,248
May’26 423.30 428.20 421.10 424.80 2.40 424.00 8,975 34,812
Aug’26 418.40 423.60 417.20 419.80 1.00 419.10 3,809 20,638
Oct’26 416.90 421.70 415.90 418.30 0.60 417.30 866 7,912
Dec’26 419.20 423.70 418.40 420.60 0.50 419.80 455 2,974
Mar’27 422.50 427.10 422.50 424.20 0.40 423.50 332 4,058
May’27 423.70 427.40 423.50 425.00 0.60 424.50 35 1,487
Aug’27 428.00 428.00 424.90 426.20 1.00 426.00 12 1,218
Oct’27 426.90 428.10 426.90 428.20 1.10 428.10 6 673
Dec’27 431.20 432.50 431.20 432.50 1.20 432.50 5 414
Mar’28 437.20 439.00 437.20 438.70 1.20 438.80 11 260
May’28          –              –              –   442.90 1.20 –            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   445.60 1.20 –            –                –  
Oct’28          –              –              –   447.50 1.20 –            –                –  
Total             28,704 152,840

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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