Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 14th April 2026

Lower opening prints were fleeting as the market immediately gathered buying and moved into credit, with May’26 initially reaching 13.83 and Jul’26 14.02. Additional progress through the morning was more attritional and buyers lacked the substance to move May’26 through the 13.80’s, and so despite the green that was showing down the board the movement felt unconvincing. The final day of the index roll was already generating by far the largest proportion of the volume when the market topped at 13.90 early in the afternoon, at which stage the lack of perceived interest from the US persuaded smaller traders to clean out some longs resulting in a return to the 13.60’s and overnight values. A brief pause was seen ahead of another push lower to 13.56, the market now finding pressure from fresh spec/fund selling as the commencement of talks between Israel and Lebanon sent brent crude values back to the mid $90’s. There were more new lows at 13.56 before the later afternoon saw a recovery, driven initially by short covering as May’26 worked back to 13.84 before another late push to ensure a stronger close. New daily highs were recorded at 13.95 with settlement 13.88 providing the best finish seen recently. Whether this represents a turnaround or simply an a show of support as we near the bottom of the range / contract lows remains to be seen, though you can be sure that any bulls will attempt to grasp it as an opportunity to pull values up as we turn towards Jul’26 following completion of the index roll window.      

It was another choppy start for the whites as Aug’26 moved between $415.70 and $418.70 through the first 30 minutes on limited volumes. The picture did not change by much with the market continuing to move around inside this band for a couple of hours, then seeing some marginal upside extension as Aug’26 moved to $419.50. What briefly appeared positive turned out to be the end of the move and a rapid turnaround saw the price return to the $415.00 area before noon, narrowing the Aug/Jul’26white premium value to $105.00. Worse was to follow for the premium as it briefly touched $103.00 as the outright value spiked down to $413.40, though some recovery then followed as our consolidation allowed for No.11 values to fall back and erode their gains. The pause ended midway through the afternoon with a fresh burst of selling hitting Aug’26 and sending the value through Fridays recent low and down to $411.50. Recovery followed in the form of short covering and its impact was dramatic as the price flew through a vacuum to hit $420.30 before holding the $418.00 area where it remained into the final hour. Incredibly the spike higher widened Aug/Jul’26 back to $110.00, and it held firm through the closing stages to end at $109.10. There was movement within the range for Aug’26 during the final hour until a final flourish saw marginal new highs recorded at $420.40 and ensured a solid closing price at $419.70.

Ahead of tomorrow expiry May’26 open interest stands at 12,357 lots, with May/Aug’26 having this afternoon having seen a receiver squeeze move it up from a -$6.50 discount to sit at $4.50 premium. Expectation is for a decent quantity of Thai sugars to reach the tape, though details of any other potential origins remain scarce.