Raw Sugar Update 

There was a familiar feel about the market this morning as early buying held March’26 in the 14.90’s though the moderate volume meant that the 15.00 area remained out of bounds. Having not made it above 14.98 there was a late morning dip back to the 14.80’s, by no means negative but additional evidence of the struggle the market faces to try and move/sustain above 15.00. Moving through noon activity remained slow, however more pressure was then brought to bear upon the market with specs applying pressure that sent prices gradually down into the 14.60’s. The losses came despite the last of the index rebalance volume reaching the market and will generate more concern amongst longs, though a low at 14.63 remains a small way above the early month mark of 14.57 and so does no chart damage at this stage. Spreads showed little change on the day with March/May’26 continuing at 0.33 points, but there remained no way back for the flat price which continued to sit at the lower end of the range through the final few hours. MOC buying did mean that March’26 was marginally above the lows at 14.68, though the nature of today’s showing may draw some more support testing in the near term.    

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.85 14.98 14.63 14.68 -0.21 14.64 68,584 416,918
May’26 14.53 14.64 14.31 14.35 -0.21 14.31 34,393 193,279
Jul’26 14.57 14.66 14.33 14.38 -0.21 14.35 19,512 140,727
Oct’26 14.85 14.97 14.62 14.69 -0.21 14.65 9,566 83,489
Mar’27 15.54 15.64 15.29 15.37 -0.21 15.32 5,645 70,202
May’27 15.35 15.44 15.10 15.18 -0.20 15.15 692 21,268
Jul’27 15.38 15.39 15.06 15.14 -0.20 15.12 204 15,366
Oct’27 15.52 15.52 15.25 15.33 -0.19 15.25 144 16,050
Mar’28 16.04 16.06 15.78 15.87 -0.19 15.80 123 5,526
May’28          –              –              –   15.70 -0.19 15.61 61 2,604
Jul’28          –              –              –   15.68 -0.20 15.59 61 3,240
                 
Total             138,985 968,669

White Sugar Update 

The day started with some light buying and prices were sitting a dollar or two higher through the early morning, albeit without finding any impetus to try and push beyond yesterdays $430.00 mark. Longs would have been hoping to sustain the gain into the afternoon to try and find some renewed supportive interest, however this did not occur and through the later morning there was an erosion back to the mid $420’s which left values tracking within the range. The early afternoon proved quiet until some long liquidation kicked in, the impact of which was to lose another few dollars in quick time and register a low at $420.00. Movements were in stark contrast to yesterday with white premium values kicked back down their own tight range with March/March’26 slipping below $96.00 for a short period, while March’26 spreads also gave up their recent gains. Prices struggled to mount much of a recovery through the rest of the afternoon and March’26 returned within $0.10 of the lows ahead of the call to provide some negative bias. A small element of position covering saw March’26 settle at $420.90, while March/May’26 ended at $2.00 and March/March’26 at $97.25 to end a disappointing performance. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 428.10 429.60 420.00 420.90 -6.40 420.80 12,180 77,417
May’26 426.40 427.20 419.00 419.90 -4.90 419.80 5,330 36,115
Aug’26 421.50 422.10 415.00 416.40 -3.40 416.10 2,632 21,068
Oct’26 419.50 420.30 413.80 415.20 -3.10 414.70 805 7,940
Dec’26 422.40 422.60 416.50 417.40 -3.20 416.70 325 3,027
Mar’27 426.30 426.30 420.10 420.90 -3.30 420.50 157 4,265
May’27 421.70 421.70 421.60 421.80 -3.20 421.60 6 1,511
Aug’27 423.00 423.00 423.00 422.70 -3.50 423.00 4 1,225
Oct’27 425.10 425.10 425.10 424.60 -3.60 425.10 2 673
Dec’27 429.40 429.40 429.40 428.90 -3.60 429.40 1 413
Mar’28 435.70 435.70 435.70 435.10 -3.60 435.70 1 271
May’28          –              –              –   439.20 -3.70            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   441.90 -3.70            –                –  
Oct’28          –              –              –   443.80 -3.70            –                –  
Total             21,443 154,071

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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