Raw Sugar Updates

The market opened today with a quiet tone, drifting either side of 16.59 without clear direction. Though we briefly touched a session high at 16.67 within the opening hour, enthusiasm was short-lived. A lack of fresh buying interest and potential pricing saw Oct’25 edge back around 16.50, where it lingered throughout the late morning. With activity appearing dominated by lighter flow – potentially from commercial participants – and thin intraday volumes, prices remained range-bound until early afternoon when the tone began to soften further. The trigger seemed to come as traders, possibly speculators, resumed selling pressure ahead of the US session, pressing values gradually toward the lower end of the range. As the afternoon progressed, bearish sentiment gained momentum with weak technical signals inviting what appeared to be long liquidation. Support was steadily eroded, and once the 16.40 area gave way, a round of potential sell stops helped push the market to fresh session lows at 16.27. A modest bounce into the close pared back some losses, but V5 still settled at 16.30.  The broader tone remains fragile, with today’s break below 16.40 highlighting the vulnerability of recent longs and raising the possibility of further weakness should momentum carry through into tomorrow’s trade.

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Oct’25 16.59 16.67 16.27 16.30 -0.27 16.31 45,188 404,032
Mar’26 17.25 17.31 16.98 17.00 -0.25 17.00 20,317 214,397
May’26 16.92 16.99 16.69 16.71 -0.23 16.73 9,001 81,137
Jul’26 16.83 16.86 16.62 16.63 -0.20 16.66 5,769 66,053
Oct’26 16.97 16.99 16.79 16.81 -0.16 16.84 2,559 41,432
Mar’27 17.33 17.36 17.21 17.22 -0.12 17.27 1,363 23,630
May’27 16.92 16.94 16.84 16.83 -0.09 16.92 786 10,786
Jul’27 16.76 16.77 16.68 16.68 -0.08 16.77 714 11,590
Oct’27 16.84 16.86 16.78 16.77 -0.07 16.85 405 7,417
Mar’28 17.13 17.18 17.13 17.10 -0.07 17.13 142 1,563
May’28          –              –              –   16.75 -0.08 16.76 1 119
                 
Total             86,245 862,156

 

White Sugar Update 

The No.5 opened on a sluggish note, with early trading at $487.70 failing to spark fresh interest. A brief uptick to the session high at $488.20 proved unsustainable, as follow-through was limited and the board quickly turned lower amid what appeared to be speculative selling and potential pricing pressure. As the morning progressed, prices slipped steadily, breaching $480 with little sign of resistance. This downward drift continued into the afternoon session, exacerbated by the absence of notable bids and an overall lack of directional conviction. Trade appeared thin, and activity was subdued, with most participants seemingly sidelined as the market tested underlying support. Despite minor bouts of two-way activity intraday, the broader tone remained negative. Price steadily eroded and by late afternoon had fallen through $474. A final push into the close saw Aug’25 register the session low at $467.60, before marginally recovering to $469.80. While today’s decline could prompt some technical interest near recent lows, the broader structure continues to lean bearish unless fresh demand emerges. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 483.90 488.20 467.60 468.80 -14.90 469.80 5,861 5,903
Oct’25 479.20 482.60 468.70 470.40 -8.80 469.80 13,335 57,873
Dec’25 468.60 471.30 460.90 462.80 -6.40 462.10 4,936 26,206
Mar’26 471.20 472.40 464.60 466.20 -4.70 466.20 1,279 16,127
May’26 473.30 474.40 467.20 468.30 -4.70 468.50 382 5,248
Aug’26 474.00 474.00 467.20 468.10 -4.90 467.30 104 4,238
Oct’26 471.40 471.60 468.60 469.30 -4.50 468.60 24 2,421
Dec’26 473.80 474.20 471.30 472.10 -3.80 472.00 64 1,893
Mar’27          –              –              –   477.10 -3.80 476.40            –   737
May’27          –              –              –   479.30 -3.60 478.40            –   207
Aug’27          –              –              –   480.20 -3.60 479.70            –   63
Oct’27 478.80 478.80 478.80 480.10 -3.30 478.80 5 125
Dec’27          –              –              –   480.00 -3.20 478.00            –   12
Mar’28          –              –              –   479.70 -2.80            –                –  
Total             25,990 121,053
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Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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