It was a muted start to the day with very little flat price movement through the early stages, the impact of UNICA and lower close encouraging buyers to step back having tempered the recent positive movements. Volume was lower than of late with much of the Jul’23 rolling now concluded and it was only as the US day drew nearer that a little buying started to appear and break the narrow band with a move into the 25.30’s. This encouraged a little more interest into the market as the specs looked to act on the momentum and rebuild from the long side, and though their initial efforts petered out in the 25.50 area they were persistent with a new move building later in the afternoon. This time they were far more successful in generating momentum, consumers joining the push as they look to complete pricing versus Jul’23 contracts while sellers remain limited south of 26c. It as not just the flat price looking firm as spread values also showed positively, the reduced rolling volume from hedge and index funds allowing Jul/Oct’23 to widen out to 0.49 points intraday as the Jul’23 reached its own high at 25.88. There was a degree of profit taking ahead of the close before defensive buying appeared to ensure a solid settlement level at 25.84, placing the market back within proximity of 26.00 as specs continue to seek a way to break out from current parameters.
A firmer opening was soon eroded, and the market showed some vulnerability with a slide to $675.00 soon afterwards, continuing near to these lows through to mid-morning with buyers proving hard to find. This weakness was also being seen for the white premium, with the gains recorded yesterday being handed back as Aug/Jul’23 retreated to the lower $120.00’s, losses which remained despite a flat price recovery to unchanged levels by the end of the morning. A lack of fresh news meant that the market was reliant upon spec activities (and No.11 sentiment) for direction, and though this was positive on the opposite side of the Atlantic, the whites were reluctant to follow with a move to $685 rejected. By mid-afternoon, the market had moved back into the red, and the nearby premium had sunk further to $118.00, both indicating a reluctance to rally which suggests the current spec activities will have limited success barring some fresh news to sustain them. The flat price did move higher during the final couple of hours to a day’s high at $688.60, but with the Aug/Jul’23 premium at $117.50 a settlement at $687.10 suggests nothing more than continuing range bound volatility.
