Though yesterday’s performance was disappointing the market remains well situated, and so that there was buying interest around this morning attempting to take May’23 back above 21.00 was to be anticipated. The buying stretched through the morning and led prices away from the 20.70’s to reach 21.02 ahead of the US morning, a solid platform from which the specs/funds could potentially look to build. The only caveat to that was that the buying never appeared and so with momentum lost a modest amount of long liquidation and day trader short positioning sent prices through a relative vacuum to be quickly trading new daily lows at 20.74. Outright volumes continued to be on the low side with many traders waiting for a clearer signal, particularly with various global financial/banking concerns building, only the May/Jul’23 seeing any significant buying to boost activity with support being encountered around 0.50 points. The rangebound malaise continued for a while, however selling returned for the later stages with a little more spec de-risking being seen as May’23 dropped to lows at 20.65. The price remained in this area through into the close and the day ended just off the lows at 20.68 leaving the market looking vulnerable to some further near-term correction. 

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Resuming after yesterday’s pullback the market began with some cautious gains, finding assorted buying from trade/consumers to sit May’23 in the mid $580’s. This was a sufficient platform from which to continue pushing back up through the range, and with limited selling in place the market moved to a high at $587.70 as the Americas day got into full swing. It will be of concern to longs that for the second time this week there was no immediate sign of any spec buying, which led to a correction back down through the morning range, and while there was equally no long liquidation taking place the market started to struggle at the bottom of the range. May/Jul’23 was finding some buying around $12 and has scale interest in place beneath, something which aided the market as it attempted to stabilise once again, although by late afternoon this was proving insufficient to prevent a further dip towards $580.00. Lows were recorded at $580.30 placing it marginally above yesterdays mark and ensuring an inside day, though there was no real late recovery with settlement at $581.30 representing a disappointing showing which removes a little more of the recent momentum. 

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Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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