Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 15th August 2025

Raw Sugar Update

The week got off to a positive start with Oct’25 moving ahead to 15.98 during the early part of the session, though at this stage the progress stalled as selling around the 16c mark provided more stern resistance. With Fridays COT report showing an expected growth in the fund short holding to now stand at -182,000 lots this initial enthusiasm may have been driven by those who feel that there will now be more limited capacity from the funds to add to this position, however the movement which followed did not give any validation to this thought with the price tracking back to 15.80 by noon. Trading remained quiet moving through into the afternoon, though prices did work their way back up into the 15.90’s, and with the Oct’25 options expiring this evening it appeared that there was an interest in keeping the market near to the 16c strike. Midway through the afternoon a sharp push through 16c occurred as an aggressive burst of buying triggered a few buy stops above 16.02 and sent the price to its highest level in almost two weeks with highs recorded at 16.13 soon afterwards. Despite the index roll having ended the spread was still seeing a solid volume change hands alongside this movement as Oct’25/March’26 sat between -0.70 and -0.75 points. Through the rest f the afternoon the market moved around the upper part of the daily range, before heading back to 16.00 in the minutes approaching the call. Settlement was made at precisely 16.00 to leave option holders with a decision as to whether to exercise, and when we resume tomorrow, we will find out whether there is any appetite to try and continue today’s progress.

White Sugar Update

Dec’25 traded upwards on the opening as mixed trading saw prices chop between $467.20 and $464.00 before settling down to sit in the $465.00 region. This appeared uninspiring and as often happens when there is so little enthusiasm being shown the market started on a downward course which set Dec’25 back to $458.70 by the end of the morning and left the market looking soft. Despite this apparent vulnerability we saw buying then return and in conjunction with the No.11 there was a rapid turnaround which returned values to the lower $460’s for a period before extending again to $467.50 as smaller traders chased back morning shorts and looked to play the long side. Unfortunately for them the fickle nature of present conditions saw the progress stall and so we set back into the range, conditions which are making it increasingly tough to turn a profit for those brave enough to try. The final couple of hours proved calmer again with the upper end of the range being consolidated, to send Dec’25 towards its tenure as spot with a higher close at $491.40. White premium values remain near to recent lows with March/March’26 trading either side of $90 today and ending at $90.25.
Oct’25 moved through its final session positively, with the receiver maintaining a strong Oct/Dec’25 spread value to send it out at $25.50. Details of the expiry are still emerging, with a tender in the region of 6,000 lots (300,000mt) anticipated when the exchange release details tomorrow.