Despite yesterday’s recovery the market remains uncertain as to its longer-term direction and so this morning with a negative macro background we proceeded to open lower, immediately giving back some of that recovery as May’23 slipped to 19.80. Much of the volume is emanating from smaller specs / day traders and with them playing the short side / liquidating longs a further dip to the lower 19.70’s occurred before the market looked to build a base and consolidate. For several hours there was no additional movement with the price edging along sideways within narrow parameters, the lack of hedge fund activity meaning that the move into the Americas day barely registered a flicker. There was some movement taking place for the spreads alongside the flat price Malaise, the view on Q1 tightness being illustrated through the strengthening of March/May’23 back to 1.66 points while May/Ju’23 narrowed in to 0.52 points. A dip to 19.61 saw us match Mondays lows, however with the current range showing no sign of abating support remained sufficient to pull back away from the lows ahead of the close. Settlement at 19.72 leaves parameters unchanged for another day.
Both No.11 and wider macro movements held influence over today’s lower opening as selling emerged to push prices down by a few dollars. Initially there was some support being seen and the market attempted to rebound, however this soon dried up and with no support to fight against the tide a further decline to the $563.00 area followed. Finding a comfortable support area in the lower $560’s the market proceeded to edge quietly sideways for several hours with any small hints that we may see a push back higher ending abruptly to leave the market continuing in its post-expiry malaise. Spreads too were quiet with only some very light volume changing hands for May/Aug’23, though white premium values did find a little support during the afternoon with May/May’23 edging up to trade above $130.00. The final hour did see price jump back up through the range to erase some of the losses, with May’23 eventually settling at $566,00 to conclude a dull “inside day” which leaves the picture unchanged.
