A negative macro picture was disregarded as May’23 continued this week’s see-saw movement with a push back up through the range this morning, chipping away steadily to trade a few points above yesterdays high at 19.94 though still stopping shy of 20c. The flat price strength was accompanied by another form showing from March/May’23 which was trading out to 1.71 points and showing every sign that it will remain firm into the expiry. With May/Jul’23 still in the low 0.50’s there is not the same positive view being shown down the board, and this will increasingly come into focus as we reach the March’23 expiry with increased visibility as to crop progress in India and any early start to the Brazilian harvest. Having stalled there was a washout of day trader longs during the early afternoon which saw the price dip quickly to 19.62 before stabilising with a calmer afternoon then prevailing. For the final few hours activity centred around the 19.70’s on moderate volumes, eventually leading to a quiet close and settlement at 19.77. With news still limited there is no suggestion that we will not see similar trading tomorrow to complete a rangebound week.
It has been a week of rangebound confinement so far and that trend was maintained through the early part of todays session as May’23 pushed back up through the same familiar range and into the low $570’s. Buying persisted through the rest of the morning and took the price to $572.70, a marginal new high for the week however yet again there was insufficient buying interest at the higher levels to maintain the move and so we fell away during the early afternoon. The fall gathered strong momentum and led prices down to new session lows at $564.10 before re-gathering, though with the momentum lost things calmed and prices calmly consolidated sideways. May/Aug’23 had seen a little more activity today with the flat price movements swinging the value between $20.40 and $16.40,while white premiums were again firmer with May/May’23 printing up towards $134.00 intra-day before dropping back by a couple of dollars. The final hours proved to be quiet leading to a mid-range close for May’23 at $567.60, suggesting more of the same will be seen tomorrow.
