Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 16th January 2024

Raw Sugar Update

Following another day tracking around the same range the market found itself poised within proximity of Mondays 16.67 high mark and through the early part of the session we saw the market move through 16.60 to approach this level. By the middle of the morning Oct’25 had touched to 16.65, however the same familiar problem manifested with buyers drying up and rather than progress the market simply started to edge along either side of 16.60. it could be assumed that traders were looking for some spec short covering to propel prices through to the upside and generate some fresh momentum, however with was not forthcoming and so instead the initial part of the US morning saw a retreat to the 16.40’s. The continuing apathy towards the upside comes from a lack of belief that trade flows have yet started to turn sufficiently from the surplus that has sent us lower, and it seems we may be stuck in this predicament for a while longer as expected reductions in supply slowly filer through and so reduce downward pressures without seeing a reversal. The later afternoon did see additional movement as the market mounted a recovery, the latest effort from smaller traders achieving a new daily high at 16.67 before again easing back when positions were closed out ahead of the call. Settlement was unchanged at 16.56 to conclude another session stuck in an increasingly familiar range.   

White Sugar Update

Having worked back up through the range yesterday we saw a positive start to proceedings as Oct’25 moved ahead to $481.50 during the early part of the session. This placed the market just a dollar below the recent highs, but despite the efforts of the longs to maintain a firm profile there was no testing of Monday’s $482.60 mark during the morning. Instead, the market tracked along sideways until the early afternoon at which stage prices fell back on long liquidation as it became clear that no additional buying would arrive from the Americas. With little buying to be found below the market there was a notable retreat against long liquidation and Oct’25 fell to $473.90 by the middle of the afternoon, only gathering itself back up once the longs had all exited. Alongside this activity Aug’25 was moving towards expiry quietly, with a very low volume trading as the final positions were squared off. Such was the illiquidity that the spot saw bid/ask quotes more that $30 apart by the afternoon, with spread values all significantly lower on the limited volume which did change hands. Through the later afternoon there was a recovery which gathered pace and resulted in marginal new highs being recorded at $482.20, however the recent ceiling remained intact and position squaring followed ahead of the close. The upshot was a settlement at $479.50 which leaves the market continuing within the same band as we await to see what reaction there is to the Aug’25 expiry. Aug’25 expired this evening at $498.50, and it is anticipated that a delivery of 2,040 lots (102,000mt) will be made. Formal confirmation of origins/ports will follow from the exchange tomorrow.