Raw Sugar Update 

There was some overnight hedge lifting which supported the opening, and with sellers continuing to hold most interest until the 15.00 area the market was above to mount a recovery as day traders / specs returned to the long side. Progress was steady and comfortable as the price continued to edge higher for a few hours, bringing the spot up to 14.86 by early afternoon as we met the arrival of US traders. No fresh impetus arrived however, and so prices levelled out before attracting some profit taking and nipping back by a small distance. That did not deter the buyers and the later afternoon saw March’26 move up to sit in the 14.90’s once again, placing the market positively though with many questions still being asked as to its capability to work sustainably above 15.00. The long seem determined to try and find out with some MOC buying pushed in to ensure that prices ended the week firmly, with settlement made at 14.96 ahead of a 15.00 post close high. Eyes will turn now to the whites while No.11 closes on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr Day, and the longs will be hoping for some positive movement as they look to try and break the current cycle of failure in the low 15’s when we resume on Tuesday.

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.61 15.00 14.60 14.96 0.39 14.99 71,071 417,720
May’26 14.24 14.58 14.23 14.54 0.34 14.57 30,245 198,792
Jul’26 14.25 14.58 14.24 14.54 0.33 14.58 16,131 148,448
Oct’26 14.56 14.86 14.54 14.83 0.31 14.86 8,816 85,754
Mar’27 15.24 15.52 15.23 15.50 0.29 15.52 5,212 73,164
May’27 15.06 15.30 15.05 15.28 0.25 15.30 1,129 21,653
Jul’27 14.97 15.24 14.97 15.23 0.22 15.24 514 15,461
Oct’27 15.18 15.33 15.18 15.41 0.20 15.32 151 16,052
Mar’28 15.85 15.90 15.85 15.95 0.20 15.90 50 5,507
May’28          –              –              –   15.77 0.19 15.57 61 2,616
Jul’28          –              –              –   15.74 0.19 15.55 43 3,239
                 
Total             133,423 988,406

White Sugar Update

March’26 jumped to $420.70 on the opening as it took its lead from the No.11 and then added to these gains through the early morning. The volumes moving the price higher were not particularly large however with most selling still sitting on scale from the higher end of recent parameters it was proving quite easy to recoup some of this week’s loss. Progress was gradual and aside from a small blip during the early afternoon remained constant as the price rose to reach $428.00 with just a couple of hours of trading remaining. While the pace of movement slowed later in the afternoon the market was still able to hold comfortably between $428.00 / $428.50 as they looked to tee things up for a positive close. This supportive action enabled white premiums to move back up their own band with March/March’26 valued at $98.60 late on, though the March/May’26 spread was more muted and remained at $1.80. The call saw March’26 end the week at $428.40, still some way shy of the late December highs though with the potential opportunity to continue moving through the overhead selling on Monday while No.11 is closed for a market holiday.

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 420.00 429.00 419.00 428.40 10.20 428.90 10,952 77,430
May’26 418.70 427.20 418.00 426.60 9.40 427.00 6,788 36,738
Aug’26 414.30 422.10 413.70 421.60 8.80 421.80 3,075 21,440
Oct’26 413.00 420.00 412.90 419.70 8.20 420.00 1,178 7,831
Dec’26 414.90 421.60 414.90 421.20 7.60 421.60 401 3,105
Mar’27 419.10 424.20 419.10 424.30 7.30 424.10 248 4,448
May’27 421.00 424.80 421.00 424.90 6.50 424.70 39 1,649
Aug’27 422.50 423.60 422.30 425.90 5.80 422.70 40 1,371
Oct’27          –              –              –   428.10 5.40 424.90 12 766
Dec’27          –              –              –   432.50 5.20 429.90 2 466
Mar’28          –              –              –   438.20 4.90 433.80 2 272
May’28          –              –              –   442.30 4.90 437.80            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   445.00 4.90            –                –  
Oct’28          –              –              –   446.90 4.90            –                –  
Total             22,737 155,662

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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