Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 16th June 2025

Raw Sugar Update

The new week got underway calmly as the market dusted itself down following Fridays late fall and looked to hold ahead of 16c. Through the early stages we saw the 16.07 low matched before some light buying started to filter through and move Jul’25 away from the lows and up into the teens, though with the option expiry to come this evening trading was tentative. The most recent COT number published on Friday had meanwhile shown further growth in the net short position for funds/specs to now stand at -91,356 lots, with expectation that this will have grown further over the past three sessions as the market fell to fresh 4-year lows. Despite the expectation that the short holders would look to continue protecting this exposure and pressing the market the rest of the morning proved to be incredibly slow with the market edging along just ahead of the recent lows. Additional selling pressure arrived as we moved into the afternoon with the spec/fund community finally pushing Jul’25 downward to register a 15c handle and a low at 15.93, though the momentum then came to an and ahead of the latest UNICA data. This showed a cane number of 47.842 mmt / Sugar 2.951 mmt / Mix 51.85% / ATR 124.87 kg/t / Ethanol 2.057 mlt, above the general expectation and intriguingly, after some initial apathy, the catalyst for a positive market reaction. Jul’25 soared across the final two hours and reached highs at 16.61, reversing the movement of the past few sessions and providing some chart impetus which any remaining longs will have been desperate for. Having recovered so impressively from the latest downward push Jul’25 settled at 16.52 with Oct’25 at 16.94, potentially providing a catalyst for additional near-term gains as the market looks to establish a bottom and reverse recent losses.

White Sugar Update

It was a mixed start to the week for the whites as initial weakness which saw Aug’25 drop to $462.80 was gathered up with the market rallying back to $467.50 soon afterwards against modest buying. Though the whites have proved to be relatively robust over recent days when considered in relation to the No.11 we were seeing only low buying interest as the morning progressed, with the trend continuing into the afternoon and allowing Aug’25 to touch within 0.10c of last weeks mark at $460.10. These lows were still relative as No.11 was making new multi-year lows, but having held and generated a double bottom for the chart the market saw some small recovery against day trader short covering and moved away from the lows. Additional upside momentum developed soon afterwards and with little selling to be found the market forged relentlessly ahead into the $470’s, making a high at $474.10 during the final hour and appearing more positive then had been the case just a few short hours previously. Additional progress was made ahead of the close with Aug’25 seeming to find some short covering and spiking up through $480.00 with the lack of selling enabling the market to reach $481.40 late in the day. It was not just the flat price which fared well as the white premium also saw great benefit during the afternoon, with Aug/Jul’25 moving all the way back up to $115.50 while Oct/Oct’25 reached to $97.50. Settlements were made at $479.80 for Aug’25 and $471.00 for Oct’25, with the Aug’Jul’25 white premium valued positively at $115.60 heading out to indicate continued robust resistance in the face of weakness elsewhere.