Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 17th April 2026

Early trading was slightly higher as the usual array of hedge lifting against overnight physical interest occurred, however once this had completed the price soon pulled back from the 13.89 high and edged down into the red. The slide extended beyond the recent lows though found support from scale buyers in the mid 13.60’s, with this area holding for the remainder of the morning on lower volumes. Moving through noon there was a small rally as a few traders covered back shorts, but it was short-lived and prices soon dropped back to mount another test of the lows. News of positive developments in Iran and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz encouraged specs/funds t sell more aggressively and so the afternoon became one of lower values, moving through assorted buying to reach an eventual low at 13.39, a mere 0.05 points above February’s contract low. Spreads were relatively static on the movements despite Jul’26 receiving the bulk of the selling, and by late afternoon were valued at -0.17 points for May/Jul’26 and -0.42 points for Jul/Oct’26. Inevitably the period leading into the close saw some risk removed ahead of the weekend, but this did not take values too far from the lows and Jul’26 heads into the weekend at 13.48. The COT will likely show growth in the spec short position given market movement across the reporting period, though the belief remains that they are some distance short of the position held in February so the potential remains for more selling to arrive should they wish.

Early buying took Aug’26 up to $421.40, however it was not sustained and once the necessary hedges had been achieved prices eased back to sit near to overnight values. By the middle of the morning these were proving difficult to maintain, and with specs already placing pressure upon the No.11 market there was a pullback to $415.10 which prevented significant growth in the white premium values. Into the afternoon there was a small correction against short covering, but that was abruptly ended with news that Hormuz would reopen while the ceasefire holds and in conjunction with a falling energy sector, we set off lower once more. By the middle of the afternoon Aug’26 was sitting just in front of the recent lows, and while they held for an extended period there was eventually a dip to a new low mark at $410.10. This fall was not impacting on the spreads and Aug/Oct’25 maintained its move to a premium with afternoon highs at $1.80, while for the Aug/Jul’26 white premium moderate gains were being maintained with activity in the $115.00 area. There was some position covering through the final hour which ensured a close off the lows at $412.30, though with both the charts and macro in tandem today there may yet be more weakness to come.