A remarkably subdued morning for No.11 saw Jul’23 drop from opening highs at 23.84 to sit quietly in the lower 23.60’s, showing no sign of the recent enthusiasm to continue pressing the highs even though there is still no selling of any not in place. For several hours, the market then proceeded to flatline, the only change coming as the price eroded a touch further during the early afternoon to reach session lows at 23.47. Ordinarily such a tedious showing may have maintained through to the end however these are not normal times and so by mid afternoon the market was re-enthused, pulling back up into the 23.70’s to erase losses, driven by day traders and algo’s who continue to pursue the long side as the path of least resistance. This left the market well situated to register a day of steady consolidation, however there was a twist as more aggressive buying emerged during the final hour, sending Jul’23 all the way to 24.09, a mere 5 points shy of its contract highs. These levels were not maintained as longs threw back out to end the day at 23.94, however such a finish illustrates that the desire to push onwards remains strong with similar efforts likely to be seen as we move forward.
A calmer start to today’s session saw Aug’23 nudging along just shy of $670.00, a steady enough start but one which suggested a general “post-expiry” apathy following the recent exertions. Despite some assertions that there may have been sugar tendered versus May’23 due to a lack of homes elsewhere the consensus seems to have decided that it was a bullish expiry, and though things remained slow this was sufficient to nudge prices up by another couple of dollars through late morning to leave the picture still looking positive. Volumes were light and so it took only a small volume of selling to send the market back to $665.00 during the afternoon, and while this dip was picked back up the day seemed set to remain one of quiet consolidation. The only area that was showing strength was the white premium where the relative performance vs. No.11 saw Aug/Jul’23 back out towards $150.00, again impressive and showing the bullish intent that remains post expiry. From nowhere there was a spike up to $678.30 during the final 30 minutes as buyers looked to end the day on a strong note, and while it was not fully maintained a settlement at $676.10 leaves the market well positioned to work back upward, something which had seemed unlikely for the previous nine hours.
