Raw Sugar Update 

A very quiet start to trading saw March’26 initially unchanged at 14.80 and then continue within a narrow band either side of this mark through the early stages. Moving through the morning the band tightened even further to the upper 14.70’s, and noon arrived with the market having seen a mere 14.72/14.88 band. Some small trader interest fueled a run back towards the highs, but it did not sustain and were it not for a mid afternoon spike down to 14.63 the morning range would likely have held for the duration of trading, such was the disinterest. Spreads ere also quiet with March/May’25 seeing a small volume as it sat near to 0.43 points throughout, the market increasingly providing the impression that traders were simply counting down time until the close. Although the price came under a little more pressure through the final hour there was no attempt made to challenge the earlier lows as March’26 moved only as far as 14.68 before ending at 14.70. This meant another mild loss after Fridays rally, though the fact that prices are not collapsing will be providing some comfort for longs who have been attempting to continue building a bottom on the chart.   

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.80 14.88 14.63 14.70 -0.10 14.71 50,477 480,445
May’26 14.36 14.45 14.21 14.24 -0.13 14.25 15,821 184,699
Jul’26 14.33 14.38 14.16 14.18 -0.13 14.19 12,341 106,588
Oct’26 14.63 14.68 14.47 14.50 -0.11 14.50 9,300 74,255
Mar’27 15.32 15.37 15.17 15.19 -0.11 15.21 2,890 42,432
May’27 15.20 15.21 15.04 15.06 -0.09 15.07 923 20,736
Jul’27 15.17 15.19 15.04 15.06 -0.08 15.08 595 15,264
Oct’27 15.34 15.42 15.28 15.30 -0.06 15.29 546 14,623
Mar’28 15.87 15.89 15.86 15.88 -0.06 15.87 164 4,846
May’28 15.76 15.76 15.72 15.74 -0.06 15.73 27 2,373
Jul’28 15.76 15.76 15.76 15.74 -0.05 15.76 24 2,226
                 
Total             93,108 948,487

White Sugar Upadte

March’26 made some small efforts to nudge upwards during the early part of the morning, but having failed to gain any traction activity then calmed with the next couple of hours playing out near to the overnight $418.10 mark. It was only as the afternoon arrived that the market received a spark and the spot drove ahead to $422.60, however there was no strong interest from the industrials and so when the move stalled the profit taking/liquidation was not far away. This provided a signal for what was to follow across the rest of the afternoon with smaller traders continuing to look from the long side but failing to make much progress, with marginal new highs at $423.00 all they had to show for their efforts. There was a widening of white premium values as collateral benefit with yesterday’s reversal being recovered as March/March’26 returned to sit in the $96.00 area once again. While the market came under more pressure through the later afternoon and pulled back from the highs we saw the premium value hold firm, and in turn so did the spreads with March/May’26 at $4.30 and March/Aug’25 at $8.50 as the spot looked to maintain credit while the rest of the board turned red. The close was a calm affair with March’26 settling at $420.20 to bring a second consecutive inside chart day to a conclusion. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 418.10 423.00 417.10 420.20 2.10 420.60 10,244 79,266
May’26 416.30 419.60 415.00 415.90 -0.50 416.20 6,529 26,770
Aug’26 414.50 416.10 411.60 411.70 -2.80 412.20 3,364 14,780
Oct’26 413.50 414.60 409.90 410.10 -3.80 410.30 830 5,512
Dec’26 417.20 417.50 413.10 413.00 -4.40 413.10 353 2,729
Mar’27 421.10 422.70 417.50 417.80 -4.90 417.50 261 2,589
May’27 426.10 426.10 423.90 421.90 -5.80 424.40 99 902
Aug’27 429.00 429.00 427.00 425.20 -6.20 427.00 82 661
Oct’27 432.90 432.90 429.50 427.60 -6.20 429.50 12 542
Dec’27          –              –              –   431.70 -6.20 429.40            –   345
Mar’28          –              –              –   437.80 -6.20            –   191
May’28          –              –              –   442.30 -6.20            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   445.00 -6.20            –                 –  
Oct’28          –              –              –   447.40 -6.20            –                 –  
Total             21,774 134,433

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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