Following three successive days of downward movement it seemed that we may see further testing towards 25c to explore the lower end of the recent range and this month’s lows, however that idea was swiftly put to bed with some early buying which pushed Ju’23 upwards. The gains were constant through the first couple of hours to reach 25.91, and though progress then slowed there was a firmness about the market with values just beneath 26c moving into the busier afternoon period. The progress continued with some smaller spec/day trader interest taking the price on to 26.09 during the early afternoon, though with trade buyers and funds less active currently there was no follow-on interest and so long liquidation led values back into the range. Spreads were struggling to regain the ground lost yesterday with Jul/Oct’23 continuing around 0.30 points, and with the flat price to the centre of the range a slow, monotonous drift towards the close ensued. The closing stages played out in the 25.70’s, leading Jul’23 to a settlement at 25.78 and mild gains that do little to suggest we will not see a continuation of recent parameters come Monday. 

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For almost two weeks the market has consolidated within a broad $700/$725 range, but though it has moved back to the lower end of this range there has been no serious threat to fall lower with white premiums having strengthened. That trend was maintained as buyers emerged to push Aug’23 sharply back up through this range to a morning high at $716.80, in the process taking Aug/Jul’23 out further to $145.00 and emphasising the solid nature of the white’s market. Consolidation followed through the rest of the morning to leave the picture well poised for further gains once US based specs joined the action, though with No.11 again reluctant to follow at the same pace their efforts resulted only in a marginal new high at $717.10 before profit taking took place. This sent values back down into the range where consolidation ensued for the rest of the session, slow trading seeing out the week on lower volumes with the premium falling back to $141.50. Spreads remained flat as we ended the day back towards session lows, Aug’23 settling at $710.00 to head into the weekend holding firmly within the current range. 

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Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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