Raw Sugar Update 

Having ended November with the most positive movement seen for many weeks it was with some disappointment that March’26 immediately fell back to 15.10 as we resumed, and selling pressure maintained with another nudge down to 15.03 following soon after. Though there were efforts made to stabilise the market ahead of 15.00 they were made in vain, and this level yielded by the middle of the morning and encouraged some additional position liquidation which sent the price down to 14.85. With the gloss now removed from recent efforts there was a period of reflection ahead of the Americas morning, however though the decline halted the market proved unable to work back above 15.00 and remained vulnerable. Continued light selling sent the price to 14.83 ahead of the UNICA announcement of data for the first half of November, however the price then punched back above 15.00 as it showed Cane at 18.761 mmt / Sugar 0.983 mmt / Mix 38.61% / ATR 142.42 kg/t / Ethanol 1.347 mlt. This was due to the sugar and mix numbers being below expectation, and a mid-afternoon high of 15.09 was recorded ahead of a return to the 15.00 area once things calmed down. This area held until the final hour at which stage the unconvincing nature of the recovery drew sellers back to the market and sent values tumbling to fresh lows. March’26 traded to 14.73 and settled at 14.76, a weak showing which will reinforce bearish views having undone virtually all last week’s work.

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 15.20 15.20 14.73 14.76 -0.45 14.74 82,273 469,342
May’26 14.71 14.71 14.27 14.29 -0.44 14.29 24,475 194,636
Jul’26 14.68 14.68 14.26 14.28 -0.40 14.27 14,665 101,786
Oct’26 14.98 14.98 14.60 14.63 -0.35 14.63 10,822 73,676
Mar’27 15.59 15.62 15.29 15.32 -0.32 15.29 3,682 45,799
May’27 15.42 15.43 15.16 15.18 -0.30 15.16 1,142 20,471
Jul’27 15.48 15.48 15.19 15.20 -0.27 15.20 754 15,127
Oct’27 15.61 15.63 15.43 15.45 -0.24 15.45 276 14,659
Mar’28 16.04 16.13 16.00 16.02 -0.22 16.00 129 5,097
May’28 15.96 15.96 15.96 15.86 -0.21 15.96 44 2,396
Jul’28 15.95 15.95 15.95 15.85 -0.20 15.95 32 2,207
                 
Total             138,294 945,196

White Sugar Update 

Initial trades were lower as the market responded to weakness from No.11 to slip back, and with little support to be found the early stages saw March’26 continue down to $430.80. There was an attempt at consolidation for a period, but this proved unsuccessful and when the price broke down into fresh daily ground the lack of underlying buying allowed the price to quickly weaken into the mid $420’s, and in the process to undo some of the recent progress for the white premium values. A little more buying began to emerge, and the market was able to dig in for a while, although hanging in the $420’s did not clear the damage and as we moved into the early afternoon there was another slight widening of the range with March’26 pushed back to $424.70. By this stage, the March/March’26 was valued back at $96.50, however some respite then arrived for the flat price as No.11 moved away from its own lows following publication of UNICA data. The whites grabbed onto the coattails and followed, moving away from the lows and up towards $430.00 before easing back once again when the buying cooled. Both spread and premium values came under additional pressure as values eased back to the bottom of the days range (March/May’26 made lows at $2.90 / March/March’26 at $95.50) and the pressure told on the flat price with new daily lows made late on. March’26 reached $420.60 before settling at $421.10, a poor performance which removes the recent chart potential.     

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 434.10 435.10 420.60 421.10 -14.40 420.90 13,074 80,008
May’26 429.10 430.10 417.50 418.00 -12.80 418.00 4,453 29,699
Aug’26 424.90 424.90 413.70 414.10 -11.60 413.90 1,771 15,766
Oct’26 421.70 421.70 413.30 413.50 -10.30 413.40 472 6,248
Dec’26 424.40 424.40 416.60 416.80 -9.50 416.60 80 2,882
Mar’27 428.40 428.40 421.90 421.70 -8.60 421.90 51 2,828
May’27 427.40 428.80 425.90 425.50 -7.80 425.90 45 948
Aug’27 430.60 432.30 429.30 429.20 -7.40 429.80 40 674
Oct’27 433.70 435.50 432.60 432.50 -6.80 433.20 40 609
Dec’27 436.90 439.80 436.90 436.80 -6.50 437.50 34 353
Mar’28 444.60 446.60 443.70 443.60 -5.70 444.40 20 191
May’28          –              –              –   447.90 -5.60            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   450.60 -5.60            –                 –  
Oct’28          –              –              –   453.00 -5.60            –                 –  
Total             20,080 140,352

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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