Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 1st May 2026

Initial higher levels were erased within 30 minutes and Jul’26 soon dropped to 14.42, maintaining the pressure which developed yesterday afternoon. Much of the morning was then spent tracking along at the lower part of this range, and with crude values again trading lower it seemed that the macro influence over smaller specs was again dictating our situation. Late in the morning this situation started to change with a move back into credit, and in turn this provided the catalyst for additional spec buying from the US which accelerated the gain to its highest levels since 7^th April. Determination amongst spec buyers took the price to 15.00, though more sizable selling at this number prided a ceiling that proved hard to break for the rest of the afternoon, Still the mood was positive (as it was for most commodities away from crude) and so a quiet afternoon played out at the upper end of the band, though the only change was when a new high at 15.01 finally printed in the last hour. Few were changing positions on the close, and the week ended with Jul’26 settling at 14.95. Whether the gains bring selling on Monday when Brazil returns from its public holiday remains to be seen, and we will have to wait slightly longer than usual to find out as Monday sees a delayed market opening at 07:30am NY time.   

It was a volatile start to trading today as Aug’26 opened in the lower $440’s but quickly slipped as light selling pushed into a near vacuum. On just a few hundred lots Aug’26 fell to $434.60, and while consolidation then set in as smaller traders dusted themselves down the market struggled to regain all the loss. It seemed at this stage that a quiet start to the month beckoned, however by late morning prices were moving positively again, still against light volumes but placing the market back into credit as we awaited the arrival of US specs to see how their influence would sway the market. The answer was positive as the market continued to drive upward alongside the No.11, reaching a high at $448.10 before proceeding to maintain the higher levels across the rest of a generally slow afternoon. Spreads remained generally solid with Aug/Oct’26 spending the day either side of parity, though despite holding near to our highs the white premium value was lower and Aug/Jul’26 settled at $116.90. Aug’26 closed at $446.50 and with a 3 day weekend ahead eyes will turn to No.11 to provide indications ahead of our resumption on Tuesday.