Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 1st October 2025

Raw Sugar Update

It was an inauspicious start to the month for March’26 as early trading saw the price slip back to 16.50, with any momentum generated through yesterday’s modest rally tempered by newswires reporting improved Thai crop expectations. The pause was brief and downward movement continued through the morning to erase all of yesterdays progress and more with March’25 down to 16.23 before the morning was through. Here was consolidated ahead of the US morning, but there was no sign of any short covering / recovery with traders content to hang onto shorts and maintaining the well held view that sugar prices will continue to be suppressed by ongoing oversupply. The early afternoon saw the US specs nudge the price down further to 16.16, with more pain to follow for the longs with additional price erosion to 16.04 as the afternoon moved ahead. The market found some better support as the price moved closer to 16.00, as was the case on several occasions during September, with lows recorded at 16.04 ahead of some short covering / consolidation during the last couple of hours. Prices remained a small distance above the lows heading into the close, With March’26 settling at 16.13 to send out a more negative chart signal and bring attention back towards the downside support.  

White Sugar Update

Dec’25 started the month by trying to hang onto yesterday’s gains in the face of some reasonable selling, but it was soon apparent that the pressure being applied to the No.11 would filter through to us versus the arbitrage values and so the market turned lower. Recent consumer interest has been starting in the $460 area and so the market was able to fall back to this area without encountering much opposition, only pausing having reached $458.20, a marginal new low for this week. The pause in the selling proved to be brief and by early afternoon we had resumed the downward trend with the price first dipping to $458.20 before building more downside momentum through the middle of the afternoon. This saw the price erode through the scale buying to lows at $452.60, suddenly just $3.50 above the September lows which had recently been appearing a little more distant. Both spreads and white premiums were sending negative sentiment too as nearby values bore the brunt of the pressure, with Dec’26/March’26 working down to $3.90 during the afternoon, while March/March’26 was softer in the $94.00 area. The final two hours saw prices stagnate until a late press lower sent Dec’25 to $451.60 and March/March’26 to $93.00, ahead of a close at $452.60 that leaves the market appearing vulnerable.