Raw Sugar Update

The market opened a touch lower and though some light buying took the price briefly higher to 14.98 it soon dipped back to a small deficit. Lows were registered at 14.88 before the market stabilised into the lower/mid 14.90’s, an area which then prevailed for several hours. Interest was minimal with no move being made to influence the price in either direction, with the arrival of the Americas entities passing with a whimper and failing to change the static nature of proceedings. It was the middle of the afternoon before the picture showed some change and the movement was provided by specs who applied some pressure and sent the market lower, likely encouraged by the continued presence of overhead grower selling. The quick fall to the upper 14.70’s failed to bring any continuation selling, with the larger funds not joining the movement, and with last weeks COT showing the spec short increased to -190,210 lots it most likely requires a break to fresh ground to draw more interest from the wider sector. Still the pressure remained on and there was a move to 14.70 during the final hour, and while the wider context is changes nothing the days provides further evidence that 15.00 remains a sticking point at the present time with March’26 ending the day at 14.72.

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.92 14.98 14.70 14.72 -0.24 14.73 57,608 413,904
May’26 14.50 14.56 14.31 14.34 -0.20 14.35 32,494 197,660
Jul’26 14.50 14.56 14.32 14.35 -0.19 14.35 18,329 151,456
Oct’26 14.81 14.86 14.62 14.65 -0.18 14.68 9,019 86,396
Mar’27 15.45 15.51 15.28 15.32 -0.18 15.33 5,156 74,832
May’27 15.23 15.28 15.08 15.11 -0.17 15.12 895 21,796
Jul’27 15.17 15.22 15.05 15.06 -0.17 15.07 295 15,550
Oct’27 15.35 15.39 15.22 15.24 -0.17 15.22 140 16,061
Mar’28 15.89 15.91 15.75 15.77 -0.18 15.75 54 5,518
May’28          –              –              –   15.59 -0.18 15.57 1 2,624
Jul’28          –              –              –   15.56 -0.18 15.55 1 3,266
                 
Total             123,992 989,063

White Sugar Update

Having threatened to push higher yesterday before ultimately failing to do so there was more limited enthusiasm meeting the market this morning and that enabled values to drift through early trading. March’26 set back to $424.20 before gathering itself up and aided by a static No.11 market traders pulled back to overnight levels early in the afternoon to redress losses that had been incurred on the white premiums. Consolidation followed in this area but following yesterdays showing there was no willingness to again attempt higher and instead a high was marked at $428.10 before eventually slipping back once more. On the first dip prices fell speedily through the established range, but that was not the end of the pressure and a second dip followed as the final hour arrived which extended the losses to $421.40. No additional losses were made, though value struggled to recover by much and continued at the lower end of the range into the close. March/May’26 ended the dat at $0.90 following another day of steady rolling, while the March’26 settlement level at $422.50 places it to the centre of the range seen so far this month.

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 427.90 428.10 421.40 422.50 -5.30 422.90 8,600 77,674
May’26 426.30 426.80 420.50 421.60 -4.80 422.00 6,466 36,720
Aug’26 421.40 421.90 415.90 417.10 -4.50 417.50 3,096 21,836
Oct’26 419.30 419.40 413.90 415.10 -4.60 415.30 864 7,938
Dec’26 420.30 420.50 415.20 416.40 -4.80 416.30 398 3,079
Mar’27 423.40 423.50 418.50 419.60 -4.70 419.50 262 4,607
May’27 422.70 422.70 422.70 420.30 -4.60 422.70 3 1,666
Aug’27          –              –              –   421.30 -4.60 422.70 1 1,397
Oct’27          –              –              –   423.50 -4.60 424.90 1 766
Dec’27          –              –              –   427.90 -4.60 429.90 1 465
Mar’28          –              –              –   433.40 -4.80 433.80            –   272
May’28          –              –              –   437.50 -4.80 437.80            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   440.20 -4.80            –                –  
Oct’28          –              –              –   442.10 -4.80            –                –  
Total             19,692 156,566

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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