Resuming after the long weekend there was immediate pressure being applied to the front of the board with Oct’23 sold down from 26.07 to 25.62 across the first few minutes. This was surprising given the positive performance seen on Friday and may be an early reflection of gossip as traders assemble in Bangkok for the Thai Sugar Dinner, prices remaining low for a period as longs gathered their thoughts. Last Friday’s COT report had shown a modest increase in the net spec long position to 193,399 lots and so it was unlikely that the market was lower due to a significant change of fund sentiment, and indeed as the morning progressed so the price further stabilised back into the 25.80’s. It was not until arrival of US based specs that the market received a boost as their buying influx generated a move to a 5-week high at 26.19, and though some profit taking put paid to life at the highs the market was able to re-gather with consolidation taking place with side of 26.00 through the afternoon. With Jul’23 now into its final 8 sessions, the focus has shifted from its flat price to the spread and here the availability of Brazilian sugars is influencing things with Jul?Oct’23 narrowing all the way to 0.19 points despite the underlying price continuing to be firm. The final stages saw the market continue either side of 26.00, padding along quietly towards the close where we ended the day just a few points lower at 26.03 following some late position squaring.
Having spiked higher yesterday during the US holiday there were hopes from the bulls that the whites may continue their recent progression, however when the market opened, we saw the polar opposite as early No.11 losses encouraged selling which sent Aug’23 plunging by almost $12 to $689.30. With few resting orders placed amongst the range it was easy for the longs to push the market away from the lows and encourage short covering, such that by late morning the market had returned to the upper $690’s. There was a pause ahead of the US morning, though its arrival drew in some renewed buying interest, specs pushing and encouraging some consumers to chase the market with their pricing to take prices into credit for the first time today. Despite this pricing the structure was continuing to show signs of struggle, with a weakening of the Aug’23 and Oct’23 spreads suggesting that the market remains uncomfortable with the notion of sustained progression above $700 at present. As the flat price swung around within the upper half of the range through the afternoon, we saw Aug/Oct’23 narrow back to flat and the Oct/Dec’23 contract to $2.20, though struggles at the front of the board for No.11 meant that white premium values were firmer and Aug/Jul’23 traded out to $123.00. The later stages played out more calmly with Aug’23 flitting wither side of unchanged, resulting in an unchanged settlement level at $701.20 to conclude.
