Reacting to a positive macro and moderately higher May’23 whites prices yesterday we a small jump on the opening call, and despite a pullback soon after it had set the tone for the latest look at the 20c area with steady buying bringing the market back to this area later in the morning. For a couple of hours the price held comfortably around 20c, though having not managed to extend higher than 20.03 it was very much a case of “new week, same as the old week” as the early afternoon drew some day trader liquidation and sent May’23 back down into the range. Not to be deterred the specs roared back with an aggressive push through to 20.16, the highest level since 10th February, but any hopes that this may draw new buying into the environment were soon quashed as liquidation / profit taking sent us back more quickly that we had risen. Though May’23 now dominates the flat price ahead of next weeks March’23 expiry there remains some reasonable volume for the March/May’23 spread as remaining positions are rolled forward, the recent squeeze reversing today with sellers pushing the differential back to 1.39 points. May’23 remained in the low 19.90’s as we edged quietly toward the close, finally settling at 19.93 to remain firmly confined to recent parameters.
The market swung either side of unchanged as a choppy opening saw trading across most of yesterday’s range, only settling down later in the morning when the influence of the wider macro and No.11 drew prices back up to the highs. Like yesterday there was some better selling encountered when within proximity of the contract highs and so a period of consolidation ensued in hope that additional buying could follow and invigorate the market to break from the range. In fact, there was a pullback on some light liquidation before another push higher took place, specs continuing at the forefront of the action in taking May’23 ever closer to the contract high and reaching $575.00 before falling back on liquidation on their own long liquidation. This seemed to kill the mood for the rest of the day as prices slumped back down through the range, condemning us to yet more of the same range bound action that has prevailed through recent times. May’23 spreads also gave back some ground during the afternoon with May/Aug’23 into $16.50 as the flat price fell back, while the May/May’23 white premium sat off its highs at $130.00. There was some flirtation with the morning lows ahead of the call before some late buying ensured a settlement just a dollar lower at $568.90.
