Raw Sugar Update 

After some early selling which briefly knocked March’26 back to 14.66 it was a quietly stable showing from the top of the board with prices moving back up to the 14.80 area. Volume continued to be low, and the continuation of trading within the same familiar parameters has become a ‘catch 22’, with nobody having the desire to force the market away from the band, while the extension of sideways trading discourages ever more interest. Trading continued quietly until the early afternoon when some spec impetus from the US sent the price ahead to 14.90, though at this stage progress halted with the start of the selling evidently now falling below 15.00. The market banged its head against 14.90 several times across the next couple of hours before eventually sliding back down into the range when smaller traders exited longs and squared positions away. Prices looked to claw on to small gains and spent a period holding in the upper 14.70’s, and while there was a return to unchanged levels ahead of the close some MOC buying ensured a token gain was recorded with settlement at 14.74. 

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.73 14.90 14.66 14.74 0.02 14.77 46,550 405,922
May’26 14.35 14.48 14.28 14.34            –   14.35 25,819 197,700
Jul’26 14.35 14.50 14.28 14.33 -0.02 14.35 19,076 153,199
Oct’26 14.65 14.80 14.59 14.65            –   14.67 8,358 86,790
Mar’27 15.32 15.48 15.26 15.35 0.03 15.36 4,181 75,837
May’27 15.12 15.29 15.06 15.17 0.06 15.19 1,809 21,851
Jul’27 15.02 15.26 15.02 15.14 0.08 15.16 1,032 15,563
Oct’27 15.22 15.45 15.22 15.35 0.11 15.41 457 16,090
Mar’28 15.76 15.98 15.74 15.89 0.12 15.95 164 5,518
May’28 15.77 15.77 15.77 15.71 0.12 15.77 44 2,624
Jul’28          –              –              –   15.68 0.12 15.55            –   3,267
                 
Total             107,490 984,361

White Sugar Update

Opening prints down to $419.80 were brief and the market soon reversed the losses to be showing little change within the first hour. This seemed to encourage some light buying interest back to the spot month and it was able to pull the price higher by a couple of dollars across the morning, albeit in a calm way which was not inspiring any fresh interest. There was some additional buying strength seen though we had to wait until the afternoon for it to manifest, however it followed a familiar pattern with smaller traders unsuccessfully pushing against pricing orders as the underprices growers chip away with their requirement and limited the high to $425.80. Alongside the March/May’26 spread continues to see some rolling, though with the March’26 open interest still standing at 76,656 lots this will pick up further over the next couple of weeks to bring the number down ahead of expiry on 13th February. The last 3 hours saw the market falling back down through the range with few buyers in place as day traders liquidated, returning the price to the lower $420’s with nearby positions all at a small deficit. This leaves parameters unmoved for yet another day, with March’26 settling at $421.10, March/May’26 at $0.50, and March/March’26 white premium valued at $96.10.  

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 422.20 425.80 419.80 421.10 -1.40 421.30 9,685 76,656
May’26 421.40 424.90 419.00 420.60 -1.00 420.90 5,878 38,389
Aug’26 416.90 420.30 414.70 416.20 -0.90 416.40 2,791 22,366
Oct’26 414.90 418.50 412.80 414.90 -0.20 415.00 1,059 8,101
Dec’26 416.40 420.00 414.50 417.00 0.60 417.10 579 2,983
Mar’27 418.00 423.60 417.80 421.20 1.60 421.10 683 4,812
May’27 419.00 425.00 418.90 423.90 3.60 424.30 403 1,667
Aug’27 420.50 427.30 420.40 426.60 5.30 427.20 246 1,397
Oct’27 422.80 430.40 422.70 429.50 6.00 430.10 148 766
Dec’27 432.20 435.30 431.90 434.40 6.50 435.00 96 466
Mar’28 432.60 440.80 432.60 440.00 6.60 440.80 33 272
May’28 441.60 443.80 441.60 444.10 6.60 443.60 10 146
Aug’28          –              –              –   446.80 6.60            –                –  
Oct’28          –              –              –   448.70 6.60            –                –  
Total             21,611 158,021

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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