Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 21st March 2023

Yesterdays muted performance ended with last week’s 20.35 lows moving back into view however there was no continuation of the pressure as we opened solidly at 20.60. Prices did ease back to fill the intra-day chart gap however once that was done the upward path resumed to leave May’23 trading at new highs by late morning. The push higher was being driven by specs/algo’s in conjunction with a more general macro recovery and was maintained through into the early afternoon until topping out at 20.92. As with so many days this month there were few resting orders to slow the movement within the ongoing range, and so that we stalled at the first sign of some light producer interest shows just how flimsy the buying remains while the funds stand aside from adding to their current longs. Some long liquidation/profit taking sent the market back by around 20 points, and though some defensive interest then looked to level things out the momentum was lost and so prices simply edged along within the range, unable to mount another challenge higher. May/Jul’23 spent the day trading either side of 0.50 points, and like the flat price was only thinly traded through the day, as shown by daily volumes only scaping above 70,000 lots on the close. There was an effort to dress the market up late on which resulted in settlement for May’23 at 20.80, however this remains to the centre of the recent range with no sign of a breakout currently on the horizon. 


The Market was moderately firmer as we got underway and held around $2 firmer through early trading, though volumes remained minimal in keeping with recent sessions. Interest did pick up by late morning with buying from the small specs/day traders pulling the price higher in conjunction with a macro recovery, illustrating their desire to seize on opportunities to drive the upside though the limited volume and thin environment suggesting that it may merely be another short-term endeavour. Still the price rose quite easily through the next couple of hours to sit in the upper $580’s and show gains of around $9 before stalling as the first meaningful selling started to appear. Some long liquidation followed to send values back into the range, however there was an enthusiasm amongst the buyers to push the market again which led values back within touching distance of the highs with an hour to go. This second push came without any support from No.11, leading the white premiums to widen back out – May/May’23 trading to $132.00 and Aug/Jul’23 to $128.00, while there was also support for the nearby spreads with May/Aug’23 moving above $15.00 late on. A final push for the flat price saw new highs recorded through the final 10 minutes, resulting in a positive May’23 settlement at $589.80 which brings the recent contract high at $594.90 back into view. 


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