Raw Sugar Update 

From an unchanged starting point the market soon found some buying interest and moved a little higher with March’26 touching to 14.86. That proved to be the extent of the interest however and through the rest of the morning the price nudged along quietly with the only interest coming from a small liquidation dip to 14.72. Values then stablised ahead of the US morning and provided sufficient encouragement for smaller specs to again look upwards, though with a wall of selling continuing to show there were some questions raised as to their expectations from such effort. March’26 moved to a high at 14.98 through their efforts but then halted with the weight of selling in front of 15.00 once again providing solid resistance. Across the next three hours the buyers continued to try and push against the selling but were unable to register a new daily high, though their efforts resolutely maintained the gains ahead of the close. The call remained at the very same levels to provide a calm end and cap off a strong performance with a settlement level of 14.96, though whether it provides sufficient strength to trigger a sustainable move back toward the December highs remains in question.  

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.72 14.98 14.70 14.96 0.22 14.96 63,742 404,313
May’26 14.34 14.52 14.31 14.50 0.16 14.49 35,593 199,748
Jul’26 14.35 14.50 14.30 14.49 0.16 14.46 20,064 153,245
Oct’26 14.65 14.80 14.62 14.79 0.14 14.77 6,728 87,835
Mar’27 15.32 15.48 15.31 15.48 0.13 15.46 3,709 76,639
May’27 15.21 15.29 15.15 15.29 0.12 15.27 929 22,208
Jul’27 15.17 15.25 15.13 15.25 0.11 15.23 208 15,890
Oct’27 15.40 15.45 15.35 15.45 0.10 15.45 112 16,079
Mar’28 15.89 15.96 15.89 15.99 0.10 15.94 33 5,531
May’28          –              –              –   15.81 0.10 15.77 31 2,638
Jul’28          –              –              –   15.78 0.10 15.55 30 3,267
                 
Total             131,179 987,393

White Sugar Update 

Today’s session began positively and March’26 made an early high at $423.70, though as the initial buying faded so we saw values retreat into negative ground and a low at $420.40. There were no further losses, and the market was able to level out as we moved through into the afternoon, and this provided the platform from which it was able to work higher again through the early afternoon in conjunction with the No.11. Progress stalled in the $425.00 area though there was no sign of any profit taking arriving and so instead we calmed to consolidate for a period. Despite these gains there was no improvement in the white premium value with March/March’26 holding the $95/$96 area, at the lower end of its current tight band. The March/May’26 spread meanwhile continued to hold on to a very small premium, though with a small growth in the March’26 open interest to 77,030 lots yesterday it is clear that spec rolling is currently limited. There is no indication that todays moderate spread volume will change this situation very much, and with just 16 sessions now remaining until expiry we await to see when the substantial movement will take place. March’26 highs at $426.30 were achieved into the close, and settlement at $425.90 may bring another look back up the range, though there remains no sign yet that the market is prepared to break out. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 422.50 426.30 420.40 425.90 4.80 425.90 10,692 77,030
May’26 421.30 425.90 419.70 425.50 4.90 425.40 6,106 38,674
Aug’26 417.60 421.60 415.40 421.20 5.00 421.10 2,705 23,091
Oct’26 416.20 419.70 414.30 419.20 4.30 419.10 1,044 8,449
Dec’26 417.80 421.40 416.30 420.60 3.60 420.50 641 3,042
Mar’27 422.10 425.10 420.90 424.30 3.10 424.30 658 4,997
May’27 424.50 427.80 424.00 426.80 2.90 426.70 355 1,922
Aug’27 427.30 430.80 427.00 429.50 2.90 430.80 255 1,477
Oct’27 430.20 434.00 430.20 432.70 3.20 434.00 148 840
Dec’27 435.30 439.30 435.30 437.90 3.50 439.20 92 533
Mar’28 440.70 444.60 440.70 443.40 3.40 444.60 40 276
May’28          –              –              –   447.80 3.70 443.60            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   449.80 3.00            –                –  
Oct’28          –              –              –   451.70 3.00            –                –  
Total             22,736 160,477

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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