Raw Sugar Update

An unchanged opening saw March’26 quickly matching yesterday’s 14.98 high mark, however, hopes that the stability seen in holding this area might bring some stronger continuation buying soon came into question with a slip to 14.90. Though only a minor retreat it seemed to change the context of recent efforts and through the morning there were additional losses incurred as some traders dumped out long positions. This latest failure to break through 15.00 proceeded to hang over the market into the afternoon with more liquidation / selling emanating from the US, wiping out all of yesterdays gain as we recorded a mid-afternoon low at 14.72. From here prices began to consolidate with some moderate buying showing up ahead of Wednesday’s 14.66 low mark, though despite this the price was unable to find any inspiration and so remained beneath 14.80 for the remainder of the session. A quiet close resulted with March’26 heading into the weekend valued at 14.73, leaving us no closer to determining a way out of the ongoing price stalemate. 

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.96 14.98 14.72 14.73 -0.23 14.73 59,711 400,581
May’26 14.50 14.51 14.29 14.31 -0.19 14.32 33,852 205,478
Jul’26 14.49 14.50 14.28 14.32 -0.17 14.32 16,030 156,152
Oct’26 14.79 14.79 14.57 14.63 -0.16 14.63 7,487 88,527
Mar’27 15.47 15.47 15.27 15.33 -0.15 15.33 2,996 77,178
May’27 15.28 15.28 15.10 15.16 -0.13 15.18 542 22,397
Jul’27 15.20 15.24 15.09 15.14 -0.11 15.16 287 15,908
Oct’27 15.42 15.42 15.29 15.35 -0.10 15.34 158 16,063
Mar’28 15.96 15.96 15.83 15.90 -0.09 15.90 91 5,529
May’28          –              –              –   15.72 -0.09 15.77 8 2,639
Jul’28          –              –              –   15.70 -0.08 15.55 3 3,289
                 
Total             121,165 993,741

White Sugar Update

Opening brings up to $427.00 were fleeting and the market quickly turned to move into the red. Buyers were few and far between as the price slipped back to the $424.00 area, and after a pause there was more weakness to follow as a mixture of fresh selling and long liquidation set the tone and sent March’26 to $421.30.  It was not just the flat price that was struggling as selling of the March/May’26 spread finally moved the value to a small discount having been threatening to do so for a couple of days, with volume finally starting to grow as the time pressure on the roll increases. Between the spread and the outright there was continuing pressure applied into the afternoon with several new lows registered along the way to a mark of $418.70 during the last hour. The spread meanwhile set back to -$0.90 discount and the weakness of both rippled through to the white premium where March/March’26 was valued in the $94 area. The close was appropriately quiet given the slow nature of trading that preceded it, with March’26 concluding barely above the low at $418.90, moving it nearer to initial $414.60 support which is found basis the 15th January low. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 426.00 427.00 418.70 418.90 -7.00 418.90 13,627 76,584
May’26 425.50 426.40 419.10 419.70 -5.80 419.50 9,110 40,449
Aug’26 421.60 421.90 414.80 415.60 -5.60 415.80 3,122 22,957
Oct’26 419.60 419.80 413.10 413.90 -5.30 413.90 864 8,569
Dec’26 421.00 421.00 415.20 416.10 -4.50 416.10 467 3,019
Mar’27 422.40 422.40 419.00 420.10 -4.20 420.00 509 5,272
May’27 422.70 422.70 422.70 422.70 -4.10 422.70 104 2,023
Aug’27          –              –              –   425.30 -4.20 430.80 58 1,681
Oct’27          –              –              –   428.30 -4.40 434.00 28 904
Dec’27          –              –              –   433.40 -4.50 439.20            –   592
Mar’28          –              –              –   438.80 -4.60 444.60            –   276
May’28          –              –              –   443.00 -4.80 443.60            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   445.00 -4.80            –                –  
Oct’28          –              –              –   446.90 -4.80            –                –  
Total             27,889 162,472

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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