Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 23rd May 2023

Yesterday’s mildly firmer close seemed to inspire some fresh overnight interest with Jul’23 working higher this morning to reach an initial high at 26.20. The biggest issue to renewing the upward progression at the present time is the lack of meaningful buying, and so as the initial interest dried up the market stalled, a small nudge to 26.22 the only further reward for the efforts of the small specs/day traders. Despite this being the highest price traded for a week there was no further reaction from buyers and so the inevitable long liquidation occurred and sent prices dropping back down through the range, and onto new daily lows at 25.84 before returning to sit near to unchanged levels. Though there was a steady volume trading for the Jul/Oct’23, spread volumes were generally light down the board, further adding to the malaise which continues. Yesterday saw significant option activity, and while a touch calmer today there was again solid interest in buying the Oct’23 puts with the 22.50 strike attracting the greater volumes. The final few hours saw nothing more than rangebound movement, and it was only as the close approached that the market broke some fresh ground with a push down to 25.77. Settlement for Jul’23 at 25.81 leaves the market continuing to plod around the same range with no sign that the current stalemate will end in the coming days.

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There was some early enthusiasm for the whites as they followed No.11 values higher on the opening, and this positive start proved to be the catalyst required to reinvigorate proceedings with spread and white premium values also finding gains against this start. Aug’23 extended to $722.00 before stalling and though values then eased back against some profit taking the losses were moderate with Aug’23 stabilising in the upper teens by late morning. While the market lacks the necessary spark to forge its way to new highs presently, this action illustrates a continuing desire for this to happen moving forward and having p[icked the market back up in the lower teens there was a second push above $720 midway through the afternoon. Highs were seen for the Aug/Jul’23 premium around $145.00 and the Aug/Oct’23 spread at $13.80, and though the flat price again faltered these were largely maintained, generating a positive appearance for the structure. With No.11 moving lower during the late afternoon the pressure transferred to reduce the nearby gains for the whites, and while the premium value remained firm this resulted in the flat price gains being erased to end the day with Aug’23 only marginally higher at $713.40. 

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