Oct’23 spiked as far as 23.27 on the opening as some initial hedge lifting emerged, however in mixed trading the price was soon pushed back to 22.82, the desire from the faster moving specs to continue pressing the short side again impacting the picture. A recovery followed as the greater influx of consumer pricing supported prices and for the rest of the morning the market was able to consolidate near to 23.00, a rare period of calm following recent weakness. The situation began to change with the arrival of Americas traders, and with the consumer interest now starting to wane so pressure was reapplied top the market, the weak technical picture which provides little support until nearer 22c again dominating sentiment. Specs and trade liquidation combined to send the price spiralling to 22.40, the sixth day in succession that we have seen sizable losses and some 3.79 points from last week’s high. Through the flat price chaos there was some calmer trading seen for the spreads with Oct’23/March’24 holding at a small discount throughout the session while the soon to expire Jul/Oct’23 traded with side of parity before ending at -0.03 points. Trading calmed during the later afternoon with prices able to hold wither side of 22.50 as traders once again dusted themselves down, Oct’23 finally closing at 22.60 following some late position squaring to conclude another technically weak performance.
A wild opening saw Aug’23 crushed down to $620.00 on a few hundred lots of selling before making an about turn to sit near to unchanged levels through the early stages. There was a greater quantity of consumer buying and hedge lifting than yesterday which was to be expected given the lower levels, and so the volatility continued soon afterwards as some unfilled buyers reacted to a nudge higher and chased the price all the way to $638.40. This choppiness could not last and with the buying concluded the market settled to hold modest gains in the lower $630’s, aided considerably by some Aug’23 spread buying which was redressing some of the recent losses, Aug/Oct’23 trading back to a small premium. This remained the situation through the afternoon with the spread touching a high at $4, though a slowly diminishing outright market saw only the spot month remaining in credit as a sea of red adorned the rest of the board. By late afternoon Aug’23 had eased back sufficiently to also be showing small losses, while the increasingly prominent Oct’23 contract was trading down into the mid $620’s. The only positive through these losses was being felt for the nearby white premium values with today’s performance standing up well in comparison to the No.11 and so allowing Oct/Oct’23 to return to the $130 area. The closing stages played out calmly with Aug’23 returning to small credit and a $628.80 close, while Oct’23 was also away from its lows at $627.40.
