A quiet but steady start6 was not maintained as the morning saw May’23 fall back to 21.13 before stabilising, the lack of any meaningful fund buying once again limiting the upward potential. The macro was giving no real signal and without the necessary outside influence progress was again limited, failing to keep pace with the whites yet again with the white premium values widening further as a result. All remained calm with the market edging along in the low 21.20’s ahead of the US morning, and while this drew an aggressive burst of spec buying the move was over in minutes with the intra-day spike quickly leading into losses as the resultant long liquidation sent the price chasing back towards 21.20. Nearby spread values were by now under pressure and the May/Jul’23 was pushed into 0.40 points through the early afternoon against strong selling, appearing as though some of the fund longs may be looking to move their rolling on ahead of the index window which remains just over a week away. Through this spread pressure the flat price recorded lows at 21.05 but was then re-gathered to move back towards the 21.20 area late in the afternoon, still shy of the contract highs despite the whites once again attempting to forge ahead. Some defensive buying did emerge into the close which ensured a settlement at 21.25, still positive should the specs wish to continue driving ahead despite the spreads continuing to send mixed messages.
A largely unchanged start to the day quickly gave way to lower prices as May’23 was sold down to $610.80 on a very small volume of long liquidation, such is the lack of resting orders at these lofty levels. With technical sentiment so positive it was not long before buying reappeared to pull values back to overnight levels, positioning the market well to continue the recent strength. Premiums were once more firming as whites out-perform the No.11, and this was helped by a spike to $618.10 as the Americas day got started though there proved to no depth to the move with prices swiftly returning to the lower teens. Buyers are not to be denied at the present time and aside from an erroneous spike lower the afternoon was one of quiet strength with prices slowly climbing back towards yesterdays highs despite a lack of spread support as May/Aug’23 narrowed back towards $13.00. This may simply reflect that fresh buying is now focussing on the Aug’23 contract as it made its own contract high at $604.90 though either way it was proving to be another robust showing. As we approached the close the market was nicely positioned to the top of the range with premium values still also near their highs – May/May’23 at $150.00, Aug/Jul’23 at $146.00 and Oct/Oct’23 around $136.00 with No.11 still lagging. A closing push saw May’23 reach $619.10, a mere o.30c shy of yesterday’s high mark with settlement at $618.40 maintaining the positive trend.
