Raw Sugar Update

Values were under a little pressure during the early part of today’s session with March’26 falling back to 16.31, however the selling interest was still being generated by the smaller traders and so there was a familiar feeling about proceedings. Through the rest of the morning, we saw the price move either side of 16.40 on low volumes, leaving the focus upon Oct’25 and any final movements it may make ahead of this evening’s expiration. Heading into the afternoon there was no material change to the flat price, while the Oct’25/March’26 spread was trading in an orderly way as it fell back from -0.40 points to -0.53 points, its mild volume doing little to change the delivery size which was looking to be in the 1.5m ton region based upon starting open interest of 31,165 lots. Some fresh enthusiasm was found for March’26 during the last two hours and it climbed to a 2-week high of 16.69, with small traders still involved but alongside them there looked to be some pre-quarter end position covering taking place. A choppy closing period saw the market finish a small way short of the highs, with March’26 settling at 16.60 to end the month with a degree of positivity.  Oct’25 expired at 16.10 with the Oct’25/March’26 spread valued at -0.50 points. Talk is that the Oct’25 expiry will see a tender of 30,032 lots (1,525,701t) with full details including origins / ports to be published by the exchange tomorrow.  

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Oct’25 16.02 16.25 15.83 16.10 0.08 16.06 6,383 31,165
Mar’26 16.42 16.69 16.31 16.60 0.15 16.60 60,343 464,803
May’26 15.99 16.19 15.85 16.14 0.15 16.14 19,972 135,992
Jul’26 15.84 16.02 15.71 15.98 0.14 15.98 8,230 87,037
Oct’26 16.00 16.22 15.91 16.18 0.13 16.18 5,206 57,934
Mar’27 16.53 16.71 16.43 16.68 0.11 16.69 3,412 29,629
May’27 16.22 16.35 16.09 16.32 0.10 16.32 515 16,409
Jul’27 15.97 16.19 15.97 16.17 0.09 16.16 286 13,927
Oct’27 16.09 16.30 16.08 16.29 0.08 16.28 263 12,908
Mar’28 16.59 16.72 16.59 16.71 0.08 16.70 131 3,755
May’28 16.28 16.28 16.28 16.40 0.08 16.28 89 1,779
                 
Total             104,830 855,338

White Sugar Update

The market was continuing to trade the same area in the lower $460’s as we got underway, with very little interest being shown from the physical side as values ended along quietly. Hopes that there may be fresh interest generated into the early afternoon were just that, and by 3pm the market had not ventured outside of a $460.20/$464.90 band, though at the front of the board we were at least seeing some support for the Dec’25/March’26 spread raising small interest. It was only during the final 3 hours that the market showed more life with buying arriving to generate some stability in the month/quarter end and raising the price to $468.90. This had some brief benefit to the white premium with March/March’26 touching above $96.50, while the Dec’25/March’26 spread extended further to $7.60 before giving back this gain during the final hour despite the outright holding steadily. This saw new session highs registered at $469.70 ahead of the close with a solid closing value registered at $468.30. March/March’26 was valued at $96.50, though Dec’25/March’26 was back at $5.80 and providing some caution as we move into Q4.  

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Dec’25 461.90 469.70 460.20 468.30 6.00 467.90 8,612 73,289
Mar’26 456.80 463.30 454.90 462.50 5.70 462.30 4,130 33,220
May’26 455.80 461.70 453.60 461.00 5.00 460.90 1,472 14,456
Aug’26 454.30 459.70 452.00 459.00 4.30 458.50 456 6,555
Oct’26 454.30 458.60 452.20 458.50 3.90 458.40 104 3,510
Dec’26 457.80 461.30 455.50 461.20 3.10 461.00 40 2,415
Mar’27 463.40 466.50 460.40 465.90 2.30 465.60 60 1,361
May’27          –              –              –   468.50 1.80 460.70 5 511
Aug’27          –              –              –   469.80 1.70 461.70 11 438
Oct’27          –              –              –   469.10 1.40 462.10 12 483
Dec’27          –              –              –   472.50 1.10 466.30 1 217
Mar’28          –              –              –   476.80 1.10 470.90            –   135
May’28          –              –              –   480.30 1.10 476.20            –   90
Aug’28          –              –              –   483.20 1.10            –                –  
Total             14,903 136,680

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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