Raw Sugar Update

Oct’25 opened at 16.49 and remained steady in the 16.49-16.51 range during the first hour. By 10:30, the tone softened, causing values to slip towards 16.39, before a tentative rebound brought prices back to the low 16.50s, peaking near 16.52 around 11:50. Mid-session, momentum faded again, causing the contract to drift lower and break support in the early afternoon, printing the day’s low at 16.28 just before 14:00. A sharp, fast rebound followed, likely due to short-term covering and opportunistic buying, sending Oct’25 to the session high of 16.61 around 14:45. However, the spike failed to attract sustained follow-through, and values quickly eased back into the mid-16.40s. From there, the market declined in stages through the final hours, with only brief pauses on minor upticks, and settled at 16.35. Turnover was moderate overall, but activity picked up noticeably during the 14:30-15:00 surge and again into the close. The day leaves Oct’25 still circling within the broader 16c-17c band; intraday rallies are encountering supply above 16.55, while dips towards 16.30 continue to draw reactive buying rather than sustained pressure. Direction likely awaits a stronger catalyst.

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Oct’25 16,49 16,61 16,28 16,35 -0,10 16,35 43.657 390.250
Mar’26 17,10 17,24 16,93 16,97 -0,09 16,98 25.094 222.755
May’26 16,80 16,91 16,64 16,67 -0,07 16,70 9.171 88.605
Jul’26 16,64 16,77 16,52 16,55 -0,06 16,58 5.235 67.776
Oct’26 16,81 16,93 16,71 16,74 -0,05 16,77 2.252 43.207
Mar’27 17,24 17,35 17,16 17,19 -0,03 17,22 1.036 24.501
May’27 16,86 16,94 16,79 16,82 -0,01 16,81 688 12.185
Jul’27 16,68 16,75 16,64 16,66 0,01 16,66 728 11.710
Oct’27 16,77 16,82 16,71 16,74 0,02 16,71 387 8.753
Mar’28 17,14 17,19 17,14 17,11 0,02 17,19 74 1.753
May’28 16,83 16,88 16,83 16,79 0,01 16,88 54 674
                 
Total             88.376 872.169

White Sugar Update

 The market opened at $470.40/mt and showed some initial strength, but this didn’t last long. The price slipped back to the $469–$470 range early in the morning. As the day progressed, the market remained soft, with prices drifting down to $468.30–$468.00 by midday. There wasn’t much trading activity, and interest seemed low. The most notable movement happened in the mid-afternoon. There was a sudden spike from the high $468s, pushing the price up to a session high of $474.20 around 14:50. This seemed to be a result of short-term covering and thin liquidity rather than a shift in demand. Unfortunately, this rally didn’t last, and prices soon fell back to the $470–$471 range. As the day came to a close, selling pressure increased, pushing prices to a low of $467.10 before a slight recovery. The market last traded at $467.60, near the day’s lowest point and far from the afternoon spike. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Oct’25 470,40 474,20 467,10 467,80 -2,20 467,50 6.815 59.333
Dec’25 462,60 466,30 460,00 460,80 -1,60 460,50 4.470 30.828
Mar’26 467,00 470,40 464,40 465,20 -2,00 465,10 2.997 17.804
May’26 469,50 472,30 466,80 467,40 -1,80 467,50 624 5.915
Aug’26 470,60 472,00 467,10 467,70 -1,60 467,90 203 4.618
Oct’26 472,00 472,50 469,00 469,30 -1,60 469,10 35 2.576
Dec’26          –              –              –   472,80 -1,60 475,30            –   1.907
Mar’27 480,30 480,30 479,90 477,90 -1,30 479,90 8 762
May’27          –              –              –   479,40 -0,70 476,90            –   205
Aug’27          –              –              –   479,70            –   479,50            –   211
Oct’27          –              –              –   479,70 0,20 –            –   130
Dec’27          –              –              –   479,60 0,20 –            –   12
Mar’28          –              –              –   479,40 0,30 –            –                 –  
May’28          –              –              –   479,40 0,30 –            –                 –  
Total             15.152 124.301
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Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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