Following two days of correction there are a few questions starting to be asked of the technical picture, and this morning saw a little more pressure being applied to send Ju’23 briefly down to 24.88 during early trading. There was some scale interest from consumers unearthed below 25c and that served to support the market through the early part of the day, bring prices back up towards overnight levels where they proceeded to consolidate. This consolidation pattern maintained through into the early afternoon with longs content to have stemmed the decline before the structure shows any significant weakness, signs that the market may be set to have a period of relative calm following the wild action seen for several weeks now. With the narrative remaining positive over potential weather concerns this consolidation led to some light pushing from the long side during the afternoon by specs/algo’s and this pulled Jul’23 up to 25.44 before running out of steam due to the lack of any meaningful buying following behind. With the day proving to be the most mundane seen for some time it was somewhat appropriate that the later afternoon saw prices slip back down towards unchanged levels, eventually concluding with Jul’23 valued just 3 points higher at 25.17.
Early trading saw Aug’23 trading either side of unchanged levels as the market looks to settle and regroup following the fall from contract highs, and in relatively thin trading this pattern maintained through the morning. There was almost as much movement for the spreads as the outright through this period with Aug/Oct’23 moving back up to $14.40 before falling back towards $10, and it seems that there are many traders unsure as to which way the market will move next. All remained calm into the early afternoon, and though there was a push lower which saw Aug’23 extend down to $686.10 there was a refusal to follow suit from No.11 and so with the Aug/Jul’23 white premium into $133.00 the move bottomed with short day traders scrambling for cover and bringing the price level back to the lower $690’s. All remained calm moving towards the close with prices continuing to the centre of the range, though a final twist saw some late selling (more long liquidation) send prices lower to end within a couple of dollars of the lows at $687.60. Nearby spreads and premiums were also near to their daily lows, a questionable close which raises the possibility of more corrective action in the coming days.
