Raw Sugar Update 

The market experienced a mixed opening which saw values trading within near proximity of overnight levels, and this set the tone for some calmer activity with traders taking stock following recent movements. Throughout the morning prices held within a 14.55 / 14.67 band, and we were into the afternoon before some fresh interest arrived from shorts looking to probe lower once more. Their efforts saw the price slip across a couple of waves to a mid afternoon lows at 14.40, however the volumes on show were some way short of that seen earlier in the week and so a return to the lows was not realistic, however it did show that sentiment remains negative with this weeks gathering in Dubai clearly not changing the consensus. Spreads were also weaker with March/May’26 dropping back down towards 0.40 points, again on a reasonable volume as some look to move positions ahead of the index roll getting underway on Friday. Through the rest of the session the market continued at the lower end of the range to post losses and renew some of the recent weakness, with March’26 settling at 14.44 and March/May’26 at 0.39 points and providing the potential for additional pressure to be applied. 

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.61 14.67 14.40 14.44 -0.19 14.41 82,967 379,622
May’26 14.20 14.23 13.97 14.05 -0.13 14.01 66,863 246,401
Jul’26 14.17 14.21 13.96 14.03 -0.14 13.99 21,753 169,087
Oct’26 14.50 14.52 14.29 14.34 -0.14 14.31 6,976 101,607
Mar’27 15.19 15.23 15.01 15.06 -0.13 15.04 3,834 93,306
May’27 15.01 15.06 14.85 14.89 -0.13 14.87 511 24,293
Jul’27 14.96 15.05 14.85 14.88 -0.13 14.88 272 16,091
Oct’27 15.24 15.29 15.09 15.13 -0.13 15.09 72 16,035
Mar’28 15.87 15.88 15.70 15.72 -0.13 15.71 37 5,523
May’28 15.71 15.71 15.71 15.55 -0.14 15.71 9 2,739
Jul’28          –              –              –   15.53 -0.14 15.64 7 3,385
                 
Total             183,301 1,058,089

White Sugar Update 

There was scant support for nearby positions as we resumed with early trading seeing May’26 fall back to $418.50 before gathering some interest. This put a sent into the white premium values, and they continued to sit lower despite efforts to recoup losses during the morning. The lack of buying from consumers and end users was hindering recovery efforts and by late morning we saw values falling to new lows, action which drew some selling from the faster moving specs as they looked to exploit the situation. Still the market continued to trade in waves and there was a recovery which pulled the price back towards $420.00 ahead of mid-afternoon lows at $415.50. These movements were taking place alongside another day of solid position rolling for the March’26 spreads, and with March’26 open interest now reduced to 43,151 lots the picture is starting to become more orderly for the final one and a half weeks of trading. The spread activity saw March/May’26 trade down to -$6.00 later in the afternoon as pressure mounted, and while the later stages saw prices hold away from the low there remained losses down the board. May’26 was held up at $417.70 on the close and remains a solid distance above its contract lows, with white premium values recouping some ground on this late showing to close at $93.50 for March/March’26 and $108.00 for May/May’26.

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 417.50 418.00 410.20 411.80 -5.80 411.20 17,155 43,151
May’26 421.00 421.50 415.50 417.70 -3.90 416.70 15,848 70,790
Aug’26 413.70 414.60 409.50 411.30 -2.90 410.70 5,412 28,043
Oct’26 409.60 411.00 406.50 408.30 -2.20 407.90 1,766 9,492
Dec’26 410.60 412.10 407.70 409.30 -2.30 409.00 328 3,811
Mar’27 415.50 416.10 411.50 412.80 -2.50 412.90 146 7,155
May’27 417.00 417.00 413.00 414.20 -2.50 413.20 93 2,151
Aug’27 416.20 416.20 414.40 415.50 -2.50 414.60 50 2,079
Oct’27          –              –              –   418.30 -2.50 420.50            –   993
Dec’27          –              –              –   423.60 -2.40 425.70            –   546
Mar’28 429.50 429.50 428.80 429.40 -2.40 428.80 10 428
May’28 431.80 431.80 431.80 432.70 -2.50 431.80 11 308
Aug’28          –              –              –   434.50 -2.60 443.00            –   13
Oct’28          –              –              –   438.50 -3.40 441.70            –   9
Total             40,819 168,969

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

More from this author