Raw Sugar Update

Continued pressure was applied to the market during the early part of the session and March’26 was sold down to a new low at 14.05, but with no stops in place and some larger buy orders placed ahead of 14.00 it was able to dig in and prevent any additional losses. A period spent holding just ahead of the lows ended when smaller trader position covering brought prices up through the range and on to 14.28, though as has been the case so often recently there was no continuation interest and the rally faded. Further movement to 14.32 followed during the early afternoon but again there was no real uptake of the move, and so it was that prices returned to the range. Smaller traders further endeavoured to generate movement / opportunity during the later afternoon without success, and so it was that the day faded away without changing anything on the chart. There was some influence being applied by the shorts during the final hour and they ensured that March’26 ended the day at 14.11, just 0.06 points above the high and further increasing the weight above the market.

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Mar’26 14.22 14.32 14.05 14.11 -0.11 14.12 50,615 479,918
May’26 13.86 13.94 13.69 13.75 -0.10 13.76 20,011 167,380
Jul’26 13.85 13.89 13.67 13.71 -0.11 13.73 10,630 111,132
Oct’26 14.10 14.17 13.95 13.98 -0.11 14.01 6,280 71,995
Mar’27 14.76 14.81 14.62 14.63 -0.12 14.66 4,405 39,289
May’27 14.58 14.65 14.46 14.47 -0.10 14.48 1,796 21,508
Jul’27 14.54 14.63 14.44 14.45 -0.09 14.47 1,500 15,698
Oct’27 14.77 14.85 14.68 14.69 -0.08 14.70 678 13,643
Mar’28 15.31 15.40 15.25 15.26 -0.06 15.27 442 4,869
May’28 15.12 15.21 15.09 15.09 -0.04 15.11 296 2,248
Jul’28 15.08 15.20 15.07 15.07 -0.02 15.10 326 2,039
                 
Total             96,979 929,719

White Sugar Update 

With technical weakness and bearish sentiment not going away it was no surprise to see selling again dominating the early part of trading as short holders went in search of further contract lows. Their efforts were soon rewarded as March’26 moved down to $403.40, although the fall ended there with a challenge of the psychological $400.00 mark still proving elusive. Across the rest of the morning and into early afternoon there was some recovery made, and the price extended to $410.50 at one stage, though with the upside mostly driven by smaller traders the highs were not maintained and values returned to sit in the red once more. With eight sessions remaining until Dec’25 expires there continue to be strong quantities of position roiling taking place, where Dec’25/March’26 pivoted either side of $7.00 during the day on solid volume which will further erode the 35,130-lot remaining open interest. White premiums saw some modest gain with March/March’26 moving back towards the mid $90’s, but generally it was quiet with the spread dominating volumes. March’26 was knocked back down on the close and settled at $405.30, bringing another weak showing to an end.     

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Dec’25 413.40 417.30 410.00 412.70 -0.70 412.80 12,480 35,130
Mar’26 406.40 410.50 403.40 405.30 -1.40 405.30 13,886 60,854
May’26 402.80 406.00 399.90 400.40 -2.40 400.70 3,241 24,101
Aug’26 399.50 402.40 397.00 397.10 -2.70 397.00 1,285 12,536
Oct’26 398.50 401.60 396.40 396.70 -2.80 396.40 205 5,005
Dec’26 401.90 404.60 400.60 400.30 -2.80 400.60 46 2,729
Mar’27 408.20 408.40 406.80 406.20 -2.80 408.40 19 2,460
May’27 413.70 413.90 412.40 411.50 -3.00 413.90 17 877
Aug’27 418.20 418.20 417.10 415.90 -3.20 417.30 5 647
Oct’27 420.60 422.00 420.60 419.00 -2.70 422.00 4 572
Dec’27          –              –              –   423.30 -2.70 427.80            –   328
Mar’28          –              –              –   429.00 -2.90 434.70            –   192
May’28          –              –              –   433.00 -2.90            –   146
Aug’28          –              –              –   435.70 -2.90            –                 –  
Total             31,188 145,577

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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